Week 1 · Final · Acrisure Stadium
Model
Projected ATL 13.3 – PIT 17.5
margin +4.2 · total 30.8
Market
PIT -6.5 · O/U 40.5
implied ATL 17.0 – PIT 23.5
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
−2.3
ATL side of the number
Total edge
−9.7
leans under
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| ATL | PIT | |
|---|---|---|
| −1.3 22nd | Power rating | 11th +1.3 |
| −4.7 32nd | Offense rating | 31st −3.4 |
| +3.4 2nd | Defense rating | 1st +4.7 |
| −0.358 30th | Offense EPA/play | 29th −0.252 |
| −0.252 2nd | Defense EPA/play allowed | 1st −0.358 |
| 36.7% 27th | Offense success rate | 30th 33.9% |
| 33.9% 1st | Defense success rate allowed | 4th 36.7% |
| −0.638 30th | Pass EPA/dropback | 26th −0.251 |
| −0.251 5th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 1st −0.638 |
| −0.113 19th | Rush EPA/carry | 25th −0.252 |
| −0.252 6th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 12th −0.113 |
| 10.0% 13th | Explosive play rate | 21st 6.2% |
| 6.2% 10th | Explosive rate allowed | 18th 10.0% |
| 16.7% 29th | 3rd-down conversion | 22nd 25.0% |
| 25.0% 7th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 2nd 16.7% |
| – – | Red-zone TD rate | 19th 50.0% |
| 50.0% 9th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | – – |
| 19.2% 22nd | Pressure rate allowed | 13th 14.0% |
| 14.0% 18th | Pressure rate | 9th 19.2% |
| 15.4% 18th | Turnover rate | 10th 7.1% |
| 7.1% 20th | Takeaway rate | 12th 15.4% |
| 13.0 24th | Points per game | 21st 20.0 |
| 20.0 11th | Points allowed per game | 7th 13.0 |
| −17.1% – | Pass rate over expected | – +11.2% |
| 30.7 17th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 6th 25.7 |
| −0.358 – | Off epa last3 | – −0.252 |
| −0.252 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.358 |
| −2.3 28th | Special teams EPA | 17th +0.8 |
ATL offense vs PIT defense
Offense percentiles for ATL against the matching defensive percentiles for PIT. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
ATLPIT D
PIT offense vs ATL defense
Offense percentiles for PIT against the matching defensive percentiles for ATL. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
PITATL D