Week 1 matchups
Model projections from opponent-adjusted EPA ratings plus 1.5 points of home field, compared with the market. Edges are z-score differences between an offense and the defense it faces.
Week 1 · 5:18 - 4thKC -2.5 · O/U 42.5
Broncos0-0 · Pwr +0.0
1031
Chiefs0-0 · Pwr +0.0
DEN ball · 2nd & 15 at DEN 22
KC 54% model · mkt KC 54%proj 23–24
Week 1 · FinalSEA -3.0 · O/U 44.5
Patriots0-1 · Pwr −1.5
1013
Seahawks1-0 · Pwr +1.5
SEA 63% model · mkt SEA 60%proj 20–25
Red zone -4.3Rushing attack -4.2
Week 1 · FinalLA -3.5 · O/U 47.5
49ers1-0 · Pwr +5.2
277
Rams0-1 · Pwr −5.2
SF 75% model · mkt LA 66%proj 27–18
Success rate +3.6Pass protection vs pressure -3.2
Week 1 · Final/OTDET -7.0 · O/U 49.5
Saints0-1 · Pwr +0.6
3031
Lions1-0 · Pwr −0.6
DET 51% model · mkt DET 73%proj 23–23
Ball security vs takeaways -1.8Pass protection vs pressure -1.1
Week 1 · FinalBUF -1.5 · O/U 44.5
Bills1-0 · Pwr +2.6
3631
Texans0-1 · Pwr −2.6
BUF 61% model · mkt BUF 50%proj 29–26
Early downs +3.1Explosive plays +3.0
Week 1 · FinalBAL -3.0 · O/U 48.5
Ravens1-0 · Pwr +5.5
4123
Colts0-1 · Pwr −5.5
BAL 76% model · mkt BAL 59%proj 28–18
Passing attack -3.2Pass protection vs pressure -2.9
Week 1 · FinalCIN -3.5 · O/U 50.5
Buccaneers0-1 · Pwr −1.0
2733
Bengals1-0 · Pwr +1.0
CIN 60% model · mkt CIN 64%proj 20–24
Ball security vs takeaways -5.5Rushing attack +2.6
Week 1 · FinalCHI -3.0 · O/U 47.5
Bears1-0 · Pwr +2.9
5937
Panthers0-1 · Pwr −2.9
CHI 63% model · mkt CHI 60%proj 31–27
Points per drive +4.3Overall efficiency +3.5
Week 1 · FinalJAX -8.5 · O/U 40.5
Browns0-1 · Pwr −6.5
1034
Jaguars1-0 · Pwr +6.5
JAX 86% model · mkt JAX 79%proj 17–32
Success rate +4.3Red zone -4.3
Week 1 · FinalTEN -1.5 · O/U 39.5
Jets1-0 · Pwr +3.4
2310
Titans0-1 · Pwr −3.4
NYJ 65% model · mkt TEN 52%proj 26–20
Pass protection vs pressure +3.1Points per drive -2.5
Week 1 · FinalPIT -6.5 · O/U 40.5
Falcons0-1 · Pwr −1.3
1320
Steelers1-0 · Pwr +1.3
PIT 62% model · mkt PIT 72%proj 13–17
Passing attack -4.6Overall efficiency -3.8
Week 1 · FinalLAC -8.5 · O/U 47.5
Cardinals1-0 · Pwr +3.9
2614
Chargers0-1 · Pwr −3.9
ARI 68% model · mkt LAC 79%proj 26–20
Rushing attack -3.1Ball security vs takeaways +2.4
Week 1 · FinalLV -3.0 · O/U 40.5
Dolphins0-1 · Pwr −2.7
1327
Raiders1-0 · Pwr +2.7
LV 69% model · mkt LV 60%proj 16–23
Rushing attack -3.6Success rate -3.0
Week 1 · FinalMIN -1.5 · O/U 46.5
Packers0-1 · Pwr −3.2
2239
Vikings1-0 · Pwr +3.2
MIN 72% model · mkt MIN 53%proj 18–26
Pass protection vs pressure -4.6Rushing attack -4.1
Week 1 · FinalPHI -6.0 · O/U 43.5
Commanders0-1 · Pwr +0.4
2224
Eagles1-0 · Pwr −0.4
PHI 52% model · mkt PHI 68%proj 24–25
Success rate -3.1Pass protection vs pressure +2.8
Week 1 · FinalDAL -3.0 · O/U 47.5
Cowboys0-1 · Pwr −1.2
2028
Giants1-0 · Pwr +1.2
NYG 61% model · mkt DAL 60%proj 29–33
Third down +5.4Explosive plays -4.4
Model vs market
The model is deliberately simple: adjusted EPA ratings scaled to points. Treat edges as a conversation starter, not a betting system.
| Game | Score | Home spread | Model margin | Spread edge | O/U | Model total | Total edge | Home WP (model) | Home WP (market) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN @ KC | −2.5 | +1.5 | −1.0 | 42.5 | 47.2 | +4.7 | 54% | 54% | |
| NE @ SEA | 10–13 | −3.0 | +4.5 | +1.5 | 44.5 | 44.5 | +0.0 | 63% | 60% |
| SF @ LA | 27–7 | −3.5 | −9.0 | −12.5 | 47.5 | 45.2 | −2.3 | 25% | 66% |
| NO @ DET | 30–31 | −7.0 | +0.3 | −6.7 | 49.5 | 45.9 | −3.6 | 51% | 73% |
| BUF @ HOU | 36–31 | +1.5 | −3.7 | −2.2 | 44.5 | 54.9 | +10.4 | 39% | 50% |
| BAL @ IND | 41–23 | +3.0 | −9.4 | −6.4 | 48.5 | 45.7 | −2.8 | 24% | 41% |
| TB @ CIN | 27–33 | −3.5 | +3.6 | +0.1 | 50.5 | 44.1 | −6.4 | 60% | 64% |
| CHI @ CAR | 59–37 | +3.0 | −4.3 | −1.3 | 47.5 | 58.5 | +11.0 | 37% | 40% |
| CLE @ JAX | 10–34 | −8.5 | +14.5 | +6.0 | 40.5 | 48.8 | +8.3 | 86% | 79% |
| NYJ @ TEN | 23–10 | −1.5 | −5.2 | −6.7 | 39.5 | 45.8 | +6.3 | 35% | 52% |
| ATL @ PIT | 13–20 | −6.5 | +4.2 | −2.3 | 40.5 | 30.8 | −9.7 | 62% | 72% |
| ARI @ LAC | 26–14 | −8.5 | −6.2 | −14.7 | 47.5 | 45.4 | −2.1 | 32% | 79% |
| MIA @ LV | 13–27 | −3.0 | +6.9 | +3.9 | 40.5 | 39.3 | −1.2 | 69% | 60% |
| GB @ MIN | 22–39 | −1.5 | +7.9 | +6.4 | 46.5 | 43.4 | −3.1 | 72% | 53% |
| WAS @ PHI | 22–24 | −6.0 | +0.7 | −5.3 | 43.5 | 48.3 | +4.8 | 52% | 68% |
| DAL @ NYG | 20–28 | +3.0 | +3.8 | +6.8 | 47.5 | 62.1 | +14.6 | 61% | 40% |