Week 4 matchups
Model projections from opponent-adjusted EPA ratings plus 1.5 points of home field, compared with the market. Edges are z-score differences between an offense and the defense it faces.
Week 4 · Thu 8:15 pm ETno line
Steelers1-0 · Pwr +1.3
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Browns0-1 · Pwr −6.5
PIT 68% modelproj 23–17
Passing attack -3.4Overall efficiency -3.0Prime Video
Week 4 · Sun 9:30 am ETno line
Colts0-1 · Pwr −5.5
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Commanders0-1 · Pwr +0.4
WAS 71% modelproj 20–27
Early downs -2.4Pass protection vs pressure +2.1NFL Net
Week 4 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Jets1-0 · Pwr +3.4
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Bears1-0 · Pwr +2.9
CHI 53% modelproj 26–27
Red zone +2.2Pass protection vs pressure +2.1FOX
Week 4 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Jaguars1-0 · Pwr +6.5
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Bengals1-0 · Pwr +1.0
JAX 62% modelproj 25–21
Success rate +3.2Red zone -3.0CBS
Week 4 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Cowboys0-1 · Pwr −1.2
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Texans0-1 · Pwr −2.6
HOU 50% modelproj 29–29
Third down +2.9Overall efficiency +2.6FOX
Week 4 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Patriots0-1 · Pwr −1.5
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Bills1-0 · Pwr +2.6
BUF 66% modelproj 22–28
Red zone -3.2Deep passing +2.9CBS
Week 4 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Titans0-1 · Pwr −3.4
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Ravens1-0 · Pwr +5.5
BAL 78% modelproj 18–28
Passing attack -2.4Deep passing +2.3CBS
Week 4 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Cardinals1-0 · Pwr +3.9
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Giants1-0 · Pwr +1.2
ARI 54% modelproj 27–26
Explosive plays -2.9Third down +2.1CBS
Week 4 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Packers0-1 · Pwr −3.2
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Buccaneers0-1 · Pwr −1.0
TB 61% modelproj 20–24
Pass protection vs pressure -2.4Ball security vs takeaways -2.3FOX
Week 4 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Rams0-1 · Pwr −5.2
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Eagles1-0 · Pwr −0.4
PHI 68% modelproj 20–27
Deep passing +2.1Points per drive -2.0FOX
Week 4 · Sun 4:05 pm ETno line
Dolphins0-1 · Pwr −2.7
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Vikings1-0 · Pwr +3.2
MIN 71% modelproj 17–24
Rushing attack -3.8Pass protection vs pressure -3.5FOX
Week 4 · Sun 4:25 pm ETno line
Chiefs0-0 · Pwr +0.0
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Raiders1-0 · Pwr +2.7
LV 62% modelproj 20–24
Rushing attack -1.8Success rate -1.5CBS
Week 4 · Sun 4:25 pm ETno line
Chargers0-1 · Pwr −3.9
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Seahawks1-0 · Pwr +1.5
SEA 69% modelproj 19–26
Rushing attack -3.7Red zone -3.0CBS
Week 4 · Sun 4:25 pm ETno line
Broncos0-0 · Pwr +0.0
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49ers1-0 · Pwr +5.2
SF 69% modelproj 20–26
Success rate +1.8Pass protection vs pressure -1.6CBS
Week 4 · Sun 8:20 pm ETno line
Lions1-0 · Pwr −0.6
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Panthers0-1 · Pwr −2.9
DET 52% modelproj 27–26
Deep passing -2.3Points per drive +2.0NBC
Week 4 · Mon 8:15 pm ETno line
Falcons0-1 · Pwr −1.3
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Saints0-1 · Pwr +0.6
NO 60% modelproj 17–21
Passing attack -2.6Overall efficiency -2.1ESPN
Model vs market
The model is deliberately simple: adjusted EPA ratings scaled to points. Treat edges as a conversation starter, not a betting system.
| Game | Score | Home spread | Model margin | Spread edge | O/U | Model total | Total edge | Home WP (model) | Home WP (market) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT @ CLE | – | −6.3 | – | – | 39.8 | – | 32% | – | |
| IND @ WAS | – | +7.4 | – | – | 47.0 | – | 71% | – | |
| NYJ @ CHI | – | +1.0 | – | – | 52.1 | – | 53% | – | |
| JAX @ CIN | – | −4.0 | – | – | 46.4 | – | 38% | – | |
| DAL @ HOU | – | +0.1 | – | – | 58.5 | – | 50% | – | |
| NE @ BUF | – | +5.6 | – | – | 49.7 | – | 66% | – | |
| TEN @ BAL | – | +10.3 | – | – | 45.8 | – | 78% | – | |
| ARI @ NYG | – | −1.2 | – | – | 53.8 | – | 46% | – | |
| GB @ TB | – | +3.6 | – | – | 43.7 | – | 61% | – | |
| LA @ PHI | – | +6.3 | – | – | 46.8 | – | 68% | – | |
| MIA @ MIN | – | +7.4 | – | – | 41.3 | – | 71% | – | |
| KC @ LV | – | +4.2 | – | – | 43.2 | – | 62% | – | |
| LAC @ SEA | – | +6.9 | – | – | 45.0 | – | 69% | – | |
| DEN @ SF | – | +6.7 | – | – | 46.2 | – | 69% | – | |
| DET @ CAR | – | −0.8 | – | – | 52.2 | – | 48% | – | |
| ATL @ NO | – | +3.4 | – | – | 38.4 | – | 60% | – |