Week 4 · Sunday, Oct 4 · 4:25 pm ET · Lumen Field
TBD referee · 7 rest days (LAC) / 7 (SEA)
Model
Projected LAC 20.6 – SEA 27.5
margin +6.9 · total 48.0
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| LAC | SEA | |
|---|---|---|
| −3.9 28th | Power rating | 11th +1.5 |
| −2.2 24th | Offense rating | 15th +0.3 |
| −1.7 25th | Defense rating | 11th +1.2 |
| −0.167 24th | Offense EPA/play | 15th +0.029 |
| +0.139 25th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 11th −0.092 |
| 40.0% 24th | Offense success rate | 25th 38.8% |
| 48.6% 27th | Defense success rate allowed | 10th 40.9% |
| −0.087 23rd | Pass EPA/dropback | 12th +0.196 |
| +0.270 25th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 18th +0.127 |
| −0.360 29th | Rush EPA/carry | 25th −0.195 |
| −0.044 22nd | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 1st −0.451 |
| 5.5% 25th | Explosive play rate | 12th 10.2% |
| 5.6% 9th | Explosive rate allowed | 2nd 1.4% |
| 25.0% 23rd | 3rd-down conversion | 28th 18.2% |
| 46.2% 22nd | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 12th 31.3% |
| 66.7% 15th | Red-zone TD rate | 30th 0.0% |
| 40.0% 7th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 9th 50.0% |
| 11.4% 9th | Pressure rate allowed | 27th 22.2% |
| 12.8% 21st | Pressure rate | 18th 14.3% |
| 20.0% 27th | Turnover rate | 1st 0.0% |
| 0.0% 25th | Takeaway rate | 2nd 33.3% |
| 14.0 24th | Points per game | 25th 13.0 |
| 26.0 17th | Points allowed per game | 2nd 10.0 |
| +0.3% – | Pass rate over expected | – −5.5% |
| 29.9 16th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 13th 28.9 |
| −0.167 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.029 |
| +0.139 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.092 |
| −4.3 31st | Special teams EPA | 16th +1.3 |
LAC offense vs SEA defense
Offense percentiles for LAC against the matching defensive percentiles for SEA. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
LACSEA D
SEA offense vs LAC defense
Offense percentiles for SEA against the matching defensive percentiles for LAC. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
SEALAC D