Week 2 matchups
Model projections from opponent-adjusted EPA ratings plus 1.5 points of home field, compared with the market. Edges are z-score differences between an offense and the defense it faces.
Week 2 · Thu 8:15 pm ETBUF -4.5 · O/U 53.5
Lions1-0 · Pwr −0.6
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Bills1-0 · Pwr +2.6
BUF 64% model · mkt BUF 64%proj 23–28
Deep passing +1.9Explosive plays +1.6Prime Video
Week 2 · Sun 1:00 pm ETCAR -1.5 · O/U 43.5
Panthers0-1 · Pwr −2.9
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Falcons0-1 · Pwr −1.3
ATL 59% model · mkt CAR 53%proj 21–24
Deep passing -2.4Rushing attack +1.4FOX
Week 2 · Sun 1:00 pm ETPHI -7.0 · O/U 39.5
Eagles1-0 · Pwr −0.4
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Titans0-1 · Pwr −3.4
PHI 54% model · mkt PHI 73%proj 24–23
Ball security vs takeaways +2.4Ball security vs takeaways +2.4FOX
Week 2 · Sun 1:00 pm ETTB -8.5 · O/U 40.5
Browns0-1 · Pwr −6.5
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Buccaneers0-1 · Pwr −1.0
TB 70% model · mkt TB 76%proj 20–27
Success rate +3.2Red zone -3.0CBS
Week 2 · Sun 1:00 pm ETGB -4.5 · O/U 44.5
Packers0-1 · Pwr −3.2
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Jets1-0 · Pwr +3.4
NYJ 72% model · mkt GB 64%proj 18–26
Pass protection vs pressure -2.3Rushing attack -2.0FOX
Week 2 · Sun 1:00 pm ETNE -5.5 · O/U 41.5
Steelers1-0 · Pwr +1.3
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Patriots0-1 · Pwr −1.5
PIT 54% model · mkt NE 68%proj 20–18
Red zone -2.6Early downs -2.6CBS
Week 2 · Sun 1:00 pm ETHOU -3.0 · O/U 46.5
Bengals1-0 · Pwr +1.0
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Texans0-1 · Pwr −2.6
CIN 56% model · mkt HOU 57%proj 26–24
Ball security vs takeaways -3.3Deep passing -2.8CBS
Week 2 · Sun 1:00 pm ETCHI -5.5 · O/U 49.5
Vikings1-0 · Pwr +3.2
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Bears1-0 · Pwr +2.9
CHI 54% model · mkt CHI 67%proj 25–26
Red zone +2.2Early downs +2.2FOX
Week 2 · Sun 1:00 pm ETBAL -8.5 · O/U 46.5
Saints0-1 · Pwr +0.6
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Ravens1-0 · Pwr +5.5
BAL 68% model · mkt BAL 75%proj 20–26
Deep passing +3.0Passing attack -1.7CBS
Week 2 · Sun 4:05 pm ETLAC -7.0 · O/U 43.5
Raiders1-0 · Pwr +2.7
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Chargers0-1 · Pwr −3.9
LV 65% model · mkt LAC 72%proj 24–19
Rushing attack -3.4Overall efficiency -2.2CBS
Week 2 · Sun 4:05 pm ETno line
Jaguars1-0 · Pwr +6.5
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Broncos0-0 · Pwr +0.0
JAX 64% modelproj 26–21
Success rate +2.1Red zone -2.1CBS
Week 2 · Sun 4:25 pm ETSF -13.5 · O/U 45.5
Dolphins0-1 · Pwr −2.7
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49ers1-0 · Pwr +5.2
SF 76% model · mkt SF 87%proj 16–26
Pass protection vs pressure -2.8Points per drive -2.7FOX
Week 2 · Sun 4:25 pm ETDAL -3.5 · O/U 50.5
Commanders0-1 · Pwr +0.4
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Cowboys0-1 · Pwr −1.2
WAS 50% model · mkt DAL 66%proj 28–28
Third down +2.3Red zone +2.2FOX
Week 2 · Sun 4:25 pm ETSEA -4.5 · O/U 41.5
Seahawks1-0 · Pwr +1.5
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Cardinals1-0 · Pwr +3.9
ARI 61% model · mkt SEA 66%proj 21–24
Explosive plays -2.6Rushing attack -2.1FOX
Week 2 · Sun 8:20 pm ETKC -6.5 · O/U 48.5
Colts0-1 · Pwr −5.5
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Chiefs0-0 · Pwr +0.0
KC 70% model · mkt KC 74%proj 20–27
Passing attack -1.6Pass protection vs pressure -1.5NBC
Week 2 · Mon 8:15 pm ETLA -7.0 · O/U 48.5
Giants1-0 · Pwr +1.2
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Rams0-1 · Pwr −5.2
NYG 64% model · mkt LA 75%proj 29–24
Success rate +3.9Third down +3.7ESPNABC
Model vs market
The model is deliberately simple: adjusted EPA ratings scaled to points. Treat edges as a conversation starter, not a betting system.
| Game | Score | Home spread | Model margin | Spread edge | O/U | Model total | Total edge | Home WP (model) | Home WP (market) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET @ BUF | −4.5 | +4.7 | +0.2 | 53.5 | 50.4 | −3.1 | 64% | 64% | |
| CAR @ ATL | +1.5 | +3.1 | +4.6 | 43.5 | 44.6 | +1.1 | 59% | 47% | |
| PHI @ TEN | +7.0 | −1.5 | +5.5 | 39.5 | 47.0 | +7.5 | 46% | 27% | |
| CLE @ TB | −8.5 | +7.0 | −1.5 | 40.5 | 46.4 | +5.9 | 70% | 76% | |
| GB @ NYJ | +4.5 | +8.1 | +12.6 | 44.5 | 44.6 | +0.1 | 72% | 36% | |
| PIT @ NE | −5.5 | −1.4 | −6.9 | 41.5 | 37.7 | −3.8 | 46% | 68% | |
| CIN @ HOU | −3.0 | −2.1 | −5.1 | 46.5 | 49.5 | +3.0 | 44% | 57% | |
| MIN @ CHI | −5.5 | +1.2 | −4.3 | 49.5 | 50.9 | +1.4 | 54% | 67% | |
| NO @ BAL | −8.5 | +6.4 | −2.1 | 46.5 | 45.8 | −0.7 | 68% | 75% | |
| LV @ LAC | −7.0 | −5.0 | −12.0 | 43.5 | 42.4 | −1.1 | 35% | 72% | |
| JAX @ DEN | – | −5.0 | – | – | 48.0 | – | 36% | – | |
| MIA @ SF | −13.5 | +9.4 | −4.1 | 45.5 | 42.3 | −3.2 | 76% | 87% | |
| WAS @ DAL | −3.5 | −0.1 | −3.6 | 50.5 | 55.2 | +4.7 | 50% | 66% | |
| SEA @ ARI | +4.5 | +3.8 | +8.3 | 41.5 | 45.0 | +3.5 | 61% | 34% | |
| IND @ KC | −6.5 | +7.0 | +0.5 | 48.5 | 46.5 | −2.0 | 70% | 74% | |
| NYG @ LA | −7.0 | −4.9 | −11.9 | 48.5 | 53.7 | +5.2 | 36% | 75% |