Week 2 · Sunday, Sep 20 · 8:20 pm ET · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
TBD referee · 7 rest days (IND) / 6 (KC) · QBs: Daniel Jones vs Patrick Mahomes
Model
Projected IND 16.2 – KC 29.5
margin +13.2 · total 45.7
Market
KC -6.5 · O/U 47.5
implied IND 20.5 – KC 27.0
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
+6.7
KC side of the number
Total edge
−1.8
leans under
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| IND | KC | |
|---|---|---|
| −5.5 30th | Power rating | 2nd +6.2 |
| −2.9 27th | Offense rating | 11th +1.4 |
| −2.6 27th | Defense rating | 1st +4.8 |
| −0.225 27th | Offense EPA/play | 11th +0.118 |
| +0.209 27th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 1st −0.378 |
| 42.6% 20th | Offense success rate | 22nd 40.9% |
| 46.9% 21st | Defense success rate allowed | 4th 36.0% |
| −0.410 30th | Pass EPA/dropback | 20th −0.014 |
| +0.316 26th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 2nd −0.442 |
| +0.116 5th | Rush EPA/carry | 1st +0.259 |
| +0.102 27th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 7th −0.228 |
| 13.0% 4th | Explosive play rate | 15th 9.1% |
| 10.9% 24th | Explosive rate allowed | 3rd 2.0% |
| 30.0% 22nd | 3rd-down conversion | 7th 56.3% |
| 37.5% 16th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 2nd 16.7% |
| 100.0% 1st | Red-zone TD rate | 19th 60.0% |
| 75.0% 18th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 9th 50.0% |
| 26.5% 29th | Pressure rate allowed | 16th 15.2% |
| 10.3% 25th | Pressure rate | 8th 21.2% |
| 16.7% 21st | Turnover rate | 14th 8.3% |
| 7.7% 20th | Takeaway rate | 10th 16.7% |
| 23.0 18th | Points per game | 8th 31.0 |
| 41.0 31st | Points allowed per game | 2nd 10.0 |
| −4.1% – | Pass rate over expected | – +0.4% |
| 35.7 30th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 8th 27.6 |
| −0.225 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.118 |
| +0.209 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.378 |
| +4.4 8th | Special teams EPA | 13th +3.3 |
IND offense vs KC defense
Offense percentiles for IND against the matching defensive percentiles for KC. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
INDKC D
KC offense vs IND defense
Offense percentiles for KC against the matching defensive percentiles for IND. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
KCIND D