Week 2 · Sunday, Sep 20 · 1:00 pm ET · Gillette Stadium
TBD referee · 7 rest days (PIT) / 11 (NE) · QBs: Aaron Rodgers vs Drake Maye
Model
Projected PIT 21.0 – NE 19.7
margin −1.4 · total 40.7
Market
NE -5.5 · O/U 41.5
implied PIT 18.0 – NE 23.5
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
−6.9
PIT side of the number
Total edge
−0.8
leans under
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| PIT | NE | |
|---|---|---|
| +1.3 12th | Power rating | 22nd −1.5 |
| −3.2 30th | Offense rating | 22nd −1.2 |
| +4.6 2nd | Defense rating | 18th −0.3 |
| −0.252 30th | Offense EPA/play | 22nd −0.092 |
| −0.358 2nd | Defense EPA/play allowed | 18th +0.029 |
| 33.9% 32nd | Offense success rate | 23rd 40.9% |
| 36.7% 5th | Defense success rate allowed | 8th 38.8% |
| −0.251 27th | Pass EPA/dropback | 15th +0.127 |
| −0.638 1st | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 21st +0.196 |
| −0.252 27th | Rush EPA/carry | 32nd −0.451 |
| −0.113 13th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 8th −0.195 |
| 6.2% 22nd | Explosive play rate | 31st 1.4% |
| 10.0% 20th | Explosive rate allowed | 21st 10.2% |
| 25.0% 23rd | 3rd-down conversion | 21st 31.3% |
| 16.7% 2nd | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 4th 18.2% |
| 50.0% 20th | Red-zone TD rate | 20th 50.0% |
| – – | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 1st 0.0% |
| 14.0% 13th | Pressure rate allowed | 14th 14.3% |
| 19.2% 10th | Pressure rate | 6th 22.2% |
| 7.1% 10th | Turnover rate | 31st 33.3% |
| 15.4% 13th | Takeaway rate | 25th 0.0% |
| 20.0 22nd | Points per game | 28th 10.0 |
| 13.0 6th | Points allowed per game | 6th 13.0 |
| +11.2% – | Pass rate over expected | – −3.5% |
| 25.7 6th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 24th 31.9 |
| −0.252 – | Off epa last3 | – −0.092 |
| −0.358 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.029 |
| +0.8 19th | Special teams EPA | 18th +1.0 |
PIT offense vs NE defense
Offense percentiles for PIT against the matching defensive percentiles for NE. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
PITNE D
NE offense vs PIT defense
Offense percentiles for NE against the matching defensive percentiles for PIT. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
NEPIT D