Week 2 · Sunday, Sep 20 · 4:05 pm ET · Empower Field at Mile High
TBD referee · 7 rest days (JAX) / 6 (DEN) · QBs: Trevor Lawrence vs Bo Nix
Model
Projected JAX 29.2 – DEN 18.0
margin −11.2 · total 47.2
Market
DEN -2.5 · O/U 44.5
implied JAX 21.0 – DEN 23.5
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
−13.7
JAX side of the number
Total edge
+2.7
leans over
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| JAX | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| +6.5 1st | Power rating | 31st −6.2 |
| +3.8 3rd | Offense rating | 32nd −4.8 |
| +2.7 7th | Defense rating | 22nd −1.4 |
| +0.310 3rd | Offense EPA/play | 32nd −0.378 |
| −0.206 7th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 22nd +0.118 |
| 59.3% 1st | Offense success rate | 29th 36.0% |
| 43.1% 16th | Defense success rate allowed | 11th 40.9% |
| +0.731 1st | Pass EPA/dropback | 31st −0.442 |
| −0.257 5th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 13th −0.014 |
| −0.053 13th | Rush EPA/carry | 26th −0.228 |
| −0.119 12th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 32nd +0.259 |
| 16.7% 1st | Explosive play rate | 30th 2.0% |
| 7.8% 15th | Explosive rate allowed | 18th 9.1% |
| 55.6% 8th | 3rd-down conversion | 30th 16.7% |
| 12.5% 1st | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 26th 56.3% |
| 100.0% 1st | Red-zone TD rate | 20th 50.0% |
| 0.0% 1st | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 13th 60.0% |
| 12.5% 11th | Pressure rate allowed | 25th 21.2% |
| 30.0% 2nd | Pressure rate | 15th 15.2% |
| 0.0% 1st | Turnover rate | 21st 16.7% |
| 22.2% 3rd | Takeaway rate | 19th 8.3% |
| 34.0 6th | Points per game | 28th 10.0 |
| 10.0 2nd | Points allowed per game | 23rd 31.0 |
| −4.3% – | Pass rate over expected | – +1.7% |
| 29.4 14th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 27th 33.5 |
| +0.310 – | Off epa last3 | – −0.378 |
| −0.206 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.118 |
| +3.0 15th | Special teams EPA | 10th +3.6 |
JAX offense vs DEN defense
Offense percentiles for JAX against the matching defensive percentiles for DEN. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
JAXDEN D
DEN offense vs JAX defense
Offense percentiles for DEN against the matching defensive percentiles for JAX. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
DENJAX D