Week 8 matchups
Model projections from opponent-adjusted EPA ratings plus 1.5 points of home field, compared with the market. Edges are z-score differences between an offense and the defense it faces.
Week 8 · Thu 8:15 pm ETno line
Panthers0-1 · Pwr −2.9
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Packers0-1 · Pwr −3.2
GB 54% modelproj 25–26
Red zone +2.2Early downs +2.2Prime Video
Week 8 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Titans0-1 · Pwr −3.4
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Bengals1-0 · Pwr +1.0
CIN 67% modelproj 20–25
Explosive plays -2.0Passing attack -1.6CBS
Week 8 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Cardinals1-0 · Pwr +3.9
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Cowboys0-1 · Pwr −1.2
ARI 60% modelproj 29–25
Third down +3.0Explosive plays -3.0FOX
Week 8 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Vikings1-0 · Pwr +3.2
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Lions1-0 · Pwr −0.6
MIN 57% modelproj 23–21
Pass protection vs pressure -2.8Deep passing -2.4FOX
Week 8 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Colts0-1 · Pwr −5.5
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Jaguars1-0 · Pwr +6.5
JAX 84% modelproj 17–30
Pass protection vs pressure -3.4Early downs +3.1CBS
Week 8 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Ravens1-0 · Pwr +5.5
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Bills1-0 · Pwr +2.6
BAL 54% modelproj 26–24
Deep passing +2.9Explosive plays +2.7CBS
Week 8 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Raiders1-0 · Pwr +2.7
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Jets1-0 · Pwr +3.4
NYJ 56% modelproj 20–22
Third down -2.3Early downs -2.2FOX
Week 8 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Falcons0-1 · Pwr −1.3
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Buccaneers0-1 · Pwr −1.0
TB 55% modelproj 18–20
Passing attack -2.7Ball security vs takeaways -2.3FOX
Week 8 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Browns0-1 · Pwr −6.5
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Steelers1-0 · Pwr +1.3
PIT 76% modelproj 15–25
Passing attack -3.4Overall efficiency -3.0CBS
Week 8 · Sun 4:05 pm ETno line
Chargers0-1 · Pwr −3.9
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Rams0-1 · Pwr −5.2
LA 50% modelproj 23–23
Red zone -1.9Pass protection vs pressure +1.9FOX
Week 8 · Sun 4:25 pm ETno line
Chiefs0-0 · Pwr +0.0
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Broncos0-0 · Pwr +0.0
DEN 54% modelproj 23–24
CBS
Week 8 · Sun 4:25 pm ETno line
Patriots0-1 · Pwr −1.5
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Dolphins0-1 · Pwr −2.7
MIA 51% modelproj 21–21
Deep passing +3.2Red zone -3.2CBS
Week 8 · Sun 8:20 pm ETno line
Eagles1-0 · Pwr −0.4
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Commanders0-1 · Pwr +0.4
WAS 57% modelproj 23–25
Success rate -3.1Pass protection vs pressure +2.8NBC
Week 8 · Mon 8:15 pm ETno line
Bears1-0 · Pwr +2.9
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Seahawks1-0 · Pwr +1.5
SEA 50% modelproj 26–26
Ball security vs takeaways -1.6Passing attack +1.5ESPN
Model vs market
The model is deliberately simple: adjusted EPA ratings scaled to points. Treat edges as a conversation starter, not a betting system.
| Game | Score | Home spread | Model margin | Spread edge | O/U | Model total | Total edge | Home WP (model) | Home WP (market) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR @ GB | – | +1.2 | – | – | 50.9 | – | 54% | – | |
| TEN @ CIN | – | +5.9 | – | – | 44.9 | – | 67% | – | |
| ARI @ DAL | – | −3.5 | – | – | 53.8 | – | 40% | – | |
| MIN @ DET | – | −2.3 | – | – | 44.6 | – | 43% | – | |
| IND @ JAX | – | +13.5 | – | – | 47.2 | – | 84% | – | |
| BAL @ BUF | – | −1.4 | – | – | 50.3 | – | 46% | – | |
| LV @ NYJ | – | +2.2 | – | – | 42.5 | – | 56% | – | |
| ATL @ TB | – | +1.8 | – | – | 37.5 | – | 55% | – | |
| CLE @ PIT | – | +9.3 | – | – | 39.8 | – | 76% | – | |
| LAC @ LA | – | +0.1 | – | – | 45.3 | – | 50% | – | |
| KC @ DEN | – | +1.5 | – | – | 47.2 | – | 54% | – | |
| NE @ MIA | – | +0.3 | – | – | 41.9 | – | 51% | – | |
| PHI @ WAS | – | +2.3 | – | – | 48.3 | – | 57% | – | |
| CHI @ SEA | – | +0.1 | – | – | 51.5 | – | 50% | – |