Week 6 matchups
Model projections from opponent-adjusted EPA ratings plus 1.5 points of home field, compared with the market. Edges are z-score differences between an offense and the defense it faces.
Week 6 · Thu 8:15 pm ETno line
Seahawks1-0 · Pwr +1.5
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Broncos0-0 · Pwr +0.0
SEA 50% modelproj 23–23
Red zone -2.1Rushing attack -2.1Prime Video
Week 6 · Sun 9:30 am ETno line
Texans0-1 · Pwr −2.6
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Jaguars1-0 · Pwr +6.5
JAX 78% modelproj 21–31
Explosive plays +3.6Passing attack +3.5NFL Net
Week 6 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Titans0-1 · Pwr −3.4
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Colts0-1 · Pwr −5.5
TEN 52% modelproj 23–23
Explosive plays +1.8Deep passing -1.8FOX
Week 6 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Jets1-0 · Pwr +3.4
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Patriots0-1 · Pwr −1.5
NYJ 60% modelproj 24–21
Explosive plays -3.0Points per drive -2.4CBS
Week 6 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Ravens1-0 · Pwr +5.5
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Browns0-1 · Pwr −6.5
BAL 78% modelproj 29–18
Pass protection vs pressure -3.4Early downs +3.1FOX
Week 6 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Bears1-0 · Pwr +2.9
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Falcons0-1 · Pwr −1.3
CHI 58% modelproj 24–21
Passing attack -1.8Deep passing -1.8FOX
Week 6 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Saints0-1 · Pwr +0.6
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Giants1-0 · Pwr +1.2
NYG 56% modelproj 26–28
Third down +2.6Success rate +2.2FOX
Week 6 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Steelers1-0 · Pwr +1.3
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Buccaneers0-1 · Pwr −1.0
PIT 53% modelproj 19–18
Passing attack -3.1Ball security vs takeaways -3.1CBS
Week 6 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Panthers0-1 · Pwr −2.9
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Eagles1-0 · Pwr −0.4
PHI 62% modelproj 25–29
Red zone +2.2Points per drive +1.9CBS
Week 6 · Sun 4:05 pm ETno line
Cardinals1-0 · Pwr +3.9
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Rams0-1 · Pwr −5.2
ARI 71% modelproj 26–19
Points per drive -2.4Success rate +2.4FOX
Week 6 · Sun 4:25 pm ETno line
Chargers0-1 · Pwr −3.9
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Chiefs0-0 · Pwr +0.0
KC 65% modelproj 20–26
Rushing attack -1.6Ball security vs takeaways +1.2CBS
Week 6 · Sun 4:25 pm ETno line
Bills1-0 · Pwr +2.6
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Raiders1-0 · Pwr +2.7
LV 55% modelproj 23–24
Rushing attack -2.8Explosive plays +2.1CBS
Week 6 · Sun 8:20 pm ETno line
Cowboys0-1 · Pwr −1.2
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Packers0-1 · Pwr −3.2
DAL 52% modelproj 27–26
Explosive plays -3.6Third down +2.7NBC
Week 6 · Mon 8:15 pm ETno line
Commanders0-1 · Pwr +0.4
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49ers1-0 · Pwr +5.2
SF 68% modelproj 20–27
Points per drive -2.0Explosive plays -1.5ESPNABC
Model vs market
The model is deliberately simple: adjusted EPA ratings scaled to points. Treat edges as a conversation starter, not a betting system.
| Game | Score | Home spread | Model margin | Spread edge | O/U | Model total | Total edge | Home WP (model) | Home WP (market) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA @ DEN | – | −0.0 | – | – | 45.9 | – | 50% | – | |
| HOU @ JAX | – | +10.6 | – | – | 51.8 | – | 78% | – | |
| TEN @ IND | – | −0.6 | – | – | 45.8 | – | 48% | – | |
| NYJ @ NE | – | −3.4 | – | – | 45.1 | – | 40% | – | |
| BAL @ CLE | – | −10.5 | – | – | 47.2 | – | 22% | – | |
| CHI @ ATL | – | −2.7 | – | – | 44.6 | – | 42% | – | |
| NO @ NYG | – | +2.1 | – | – | 54.0 | – | 56% | – | |
| PIT @ TB | – | −0.9 | – | – | 37.5 | – | 47% | – | |
| CAR @ PHI | – | +4.0 | – | – | 53.4 | – | 62% | – | |
| ARI @ LA | – | −7.6 | – | – | 45.3 | – | 29% | – | |
| LAC @ KC | – | +5.4 | – | – | 46.3 | – | 65% | – | |
| BUF @ LV | – | +1.6 | – | – | 47.1 | – | 55% | – | |
| DAL @ GB | – | −0.5 | – | – | 52.7 | – | 48% | – | |
| WAS @ SF | – | +6.3 | – | – | 46.8 | – | 68% | – |