Week 12 matchups
Model projections from opponent-adjusted EPA ratings plus 1.5 points of home field, compared with the market. Edges are z-score differences between an offense and the defense it faces.
Week 12 · Wed 8:00 pm ETno line
Packers0-1 · Pwr −3.2
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Rams0-1 · Pwr −5.2
GB 52% modelproj 22–22
Early downs -2.4Deep passing +2.2Netflix
Week 12 · Thu 1:00 pm ETno line
Bears1-0 · Pwr +2.9
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Lions1-0 · Pwr −0.6
CHI 56% modelproj 27–25
Third down +2.1Points per drive +2.1CBS
Week 12 · Thu 4:30 pm ETno line
Eagles1-0 · Pwr −0.4
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Cowboys0-1 · Pwr −1.2
DAL 52% modelproj 27–28
Explosive plays -3.3Third down +2.9FOX
Week 12 · Thu 8:20 pm ETno line
Chiefs0-0 · Pwr +0.0
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Bills1-0 · Pwr +2.6
BUF 62% modelproj 23–28
Deep passing +2.1Early downs +1.6NBC
Week 12 · Fri 3:00 pm ETno line
Broncos0-0 · Pwr +0.0
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Steelers1-0 · Pwr +1.3
PIT 58% modelproj 18–21
Passing attack -2.3Deep passing +2.1Prime Video
Week 12 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Raiders1-0 · Pwr +2.7
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Browns0-1 · Pwr −6.5
LV 72% modelproj 26–18
Red zone -3.2Pass protection vs pressure -3.1FOX
Week 12 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Saints0-1 · Pwr +0.6
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Bengals1-0 · Pwr +1.0
CIN 56% modelproj 22–23
Ball security vs takeaways -3.7Rushing attack +1.5CBS
Week 12 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Ravens1-0 · Pwr +5.5
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Texans0-1 · Pwr −2.6
BAL 69% modelproj 28–22
Early downs +3.0Overall efficiency +2.3CBS
Week 12 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Falcons0-1 · Pwr −1.3
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Vikings1-0 · Pwr +3.2
MIN 67% modelproj 16–22
Overall efficiency -2.9Pass protection vs pressure -2.8FOX
Week 12 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Jets1-0 · Pwr +3.4
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Dolphins0-1 · Pwr −2.7
NYJ 63% modelproj 24–19
Deep passing +3.4Pass protection vs pressure +2.8CBS
Week 12 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Giants1-0 · Pwr +1.2
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Colts0-1 · Pwr −5.5
NYG 65% modelproj 30–24
Points per drive +2.9Overall efficiency +2.7FOX
Week 12 · Sun 4:05 pm ETno line
Titans0-1 · Pwr −3.4
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Jaguars1-0 · Pwr +6.5
JAX 80% modelproj 18–29
Passing attack +2.8Explosive plays +2.8CBS
Week 12 · Sun 4:25 pm ETno line
Seahawks1-0 · Pwr +1.5
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49ers1-0 · Pwr +5.2
SF 65% modelproj 20–25
Red zone -3.2Points per drive -2.5FOX
Week 12 · Sun 4:25 pm ETno line
Commanders0-1 · Pwr +0.4
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Cardinals1-0 · Pwr +3.9
ARI 64% modelproj 21–26
Ball security vs takeaways +2.4Pass protection vs pressure +1.9FOX
Week 12 · Sun 8:20 pm ETno line
Patriots0-1 · Pwr −1.5
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Chargers0-1 · Pwr −3.9
NE 52% modelproj 23–22
Explosive plays -2.6Rushing attack -2.1NBC
Week 12 · Mon 8:15 pm ETno line
Panthers0-1 · Pwr −2.9
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Buccaneers0-1 · Pwr −1.0
TB 60% modelproj 24–27
Rushing attack +2.8Deep passing -2.5ESPN
Model vs market
The model is deliberately simple: adjusted EPA ratings scaled to points. Treat edges as a conversation starter, not a betting system.
| Game | Score | Home spread | Model margin | Spread edge | O/U | Model total | Total edge | Home WP (model) | Home WP (market) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB @ LA | – | −0.6 | – | – | 44.3 | – | 48% | – | |
| CHI @ DET | – | −2.0 | – | – | 52.2 | – | 44% | – | |
| PHI @ DAL | – | +0.7 | – | – | 55.2 | – | 52% | – | |
| KC @ BUF | – | +4.1 | – | – | 51.1 | – | 62% | – | |
| DEN @ PIT | – | +2.8 | – | – | 39.0 | – | 58% | – | |
| LV @ CLE | – | −7.7 | – | – | 44.0 | – | 28% | – | |
| NO @ CIN | – | +2.0 | – | – | 45.0 | – | 56% | – | |
| BAL @ HOU | – | −6.6 | – | – | 50.3 | – | 31% | – | |
| ATL @ MIN | – | +6.0 | – | – | 37.1 | – | 67% | – | |
| NYJ @ MIA | – | −4.6 | – | – | 42.5 | – | 37% | – | |
| NYG @ IND | – | −5.1 | – | – | 53.9 | – | 35% | – | |
| TEN @ JAX | – | +11.4 | – | – | 47.3 | – | 80% | – | |
| SEA @ SF | – | +5.2 | – | – | 44.9 | – | 65% | – | |
| WAS @ ARI | – | +5.0 | – | – | 46.9 | – | 64% | – | |
| NE @ LAC | – | −0.8 | – | – | 45.0 | – | 48% | – | |
| CAR @ TB | – | +3.4 | – | – | 51.3 | – | 60% | – |