Week 12 · Friday, Nov 27 · 3:00 pm ET · Acrisure Stadium
TBD referee · 5 rest days (DEN) / 5 (PIT)
Model
Projected DEN 14.6 – PIT 23.7
margin +9.1 · total 38.2
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| DEN | PIT | |
|---|---|---|
| −6.2 31st | Power rating | 12th +1.3 |
| −4.8 32nd | Offense rating | 30th −3.2 |
| −1.4 22nd | Defense rating | 2nd +4.6 |
| −0.378 32nd | Offense EPA/play | 30th −0.252 |
| +0.118 22nd | Defense EPA/play allowed | 2nd −0.358 |
| 36.0% 29th | Offense success rate | 32nd 33.9% |
| 40.9% 11th | Defense success rate allowed | 5th 36.7% |
| −0.442 31st | Pass EPA/dropback | 27th −0.251 |
| −0.014 13th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 1st −0.638 |
| −0.228 26th | Rush EPA/carry | 27th −0.252 |
| +0.259 32nd | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 13th −0.113 |
| 2.0% 30th | Explosive play rate | 22nd 6.2% |
| 9.1% 18th | Explosive rate allowed | 20th 10.0% |
| 16.7% 30th | 3rd-down conversion | 23rd 25.0% |
| 56.3% 26th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 2nd 16.7% |
| 50.0% 20th | Red-zone TD rate | 20th 50.0% |
| 60.0% 13th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | – – |
| 21.2% 25th | Pressure rate allowed | 13th 14.0% |
| 15.2% 15th | Pressure rate | 10th 19.2% |
| 16.7% 21st | Turnover rate | 10th 7.1% |
| 8.3% 19th | Takeaway rate | 13th 15.4% |
| 10.0 28th | Points per game | 22nd 20.0 |
| 31.0 23rd | Points allowed per game | 6th 13.0 |
| +1.7% – | Pass rate over expected | – +11.2% |
| 33.5 27th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 6th 25.7 |
| −0.378 – | Off epa last3 | – −0.252 |
| +0.118 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.358 |
| +3.6 10th | Special teams EPA | 19th +0.8 |
DEN offense vs PIT defense
Offense percentiles for DEN against the matching defensive percentiles for PIT. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
DENPIT D
PIT offense vs DEN defense
Offense percentiles for PIT against the matching defensive percentiles for DEN. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
PITDEN D