Week 12 · Thursday, Nov 26 · 8:20 pm ET · Highmark Stadium
TBD referee · 4 rest days (KC) / 4 (BUF)
Model
Projected KC 26.2 – BUF 24.1
margin −2.1 · total 50.3
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| KC | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| +6.2 2nd | Power rating | 10th +2.6 |
| +1.4 11th | Offense rating | 4th +3.4 |
| +4.8 1st | Defense rating | 20th −0.8 |
| +0.118 11th | Offense EPA/play | 4th +0.278 |
| −0.378 1st | Defense EPA/play allowed | 20th +0.071 |
| 40.9% 22nd | Offense success rate | 21st 41.1% |
| 36.0% 4th | Defense success rate allowed | 24th 48.1% |
| −0.014 20th | Pass EPA/dropback | 3rd +0.556 |
| −0.442 2nd | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 17th +0.098 |
| +0.259 1st | Rush EPA/carry | 28th −0.263 |
| −0.228 7th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 24th +0.030 |
| 9.1% 15th | Explosive play rate | 2nd 14.3% |
| 2.0% 3rd | Explosive rate allowed | 16th 8.9% |
| 56.3% 7th | 3rd-down conversion | 18th 33.3% |
| 16.7% 2nd | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 20th 43.8% |
| 60.0% 19th | Red-zone TD rate | 26th 33.3% |
| 50.0% 9th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 20th 80.0% |
| 15.2% 16th | Pressure rate allowed | 7th 9.1% |
| 21.2% 8th | Pressure rate | 7th 21.4% |
| 8.3% 14th | Turnover rate | 1st 0.0% |
| 16.7% 10th | Takeaway rate | 7th 18.2% |
| 31.0 8th | Points per game | 5th 36.0 |
| 10.0 2nd | Points allowed per game | 23rd 31.0 |
| +0.4% – | Pass rate over expected | – +3.7% |
| 27.6 8th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 9th 28.0 |
| +0.118 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.278 |
| −0.378 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.071 |
| +3.3 13th | Special teams EPA | 7th +4.4 |
KC offense vs BUF defense
Offense percentiles for KC against the matching defensive percentiles for BUF. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
KCBUF D
BUF offense vs KC defense
Offense percentiles for BUF against the matching defensive percentiles for KC. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
BUFKC D