Week 9 matchups
Model projections from opponent-adjusted EPA ratings plus 1.5 points of home field, compared with the market. Edges are z-score differences between an offense and the defense it faces.
Week 9 · Thu 8:15 pm ETno line
Jaguars1-0 · Pwr +6.5
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Ravens1-0 · Pwr +5.5
BAL 51% modelproj 23–24
Explosive plays +3.3Red zone +2.2Prime Video
Week 9 · Sun 9:30 am ETno line
Bengals1-0 · Pwr +1.0
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Falcons0-1 · Pwr −1.3
CIN 53% modelproj 19–18
Passing attack -3.1Ball security vs takeaways -3.1NFL Net
Week 9 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Jets1-0 · Pwr +3.4
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Chiefs0-0 · Pwr +0.0
NYJ 56% modelproj 24–22
Pass protection vs pressure +1.6Points per drive -1.3CBS
Week 9 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Lions1-0 · Pwr −0.6
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Dolphins0-1 · Pwr −2.7
DET 52% modelproj 22–21
Deep passing +2.2Rushing attack -1.7FOX
Week 9 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Cowboys0-1 · Pwr −1.2
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Colts0-1 · Pwr −5.5
DAL 58% modelproj 28–26
Overall efficiency +2.3Rushing attack +2.3FOX
Week 9 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Broncos0-0 · Pwr +0.0
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Panthers0-1 · Pwr −2.9
DEN 54% modelproj 27–26
Points per drive +2.1Overall efficiency +1.7CBS
Week 9 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Browns0-1 · Pwr −6.5
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Saints0-1 · Pwr +0.6
NO 74% modelproj 19–28
Pass protection vs pressure -2.5Explosive plays +2.3CBS
Week 9 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Rams0-1 · Pwr −5.2
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Commanders0-1 · Pwr +0.4
WAS 70% modelproj 20–27
Pass protection vs pressure +2.7Deep passing +2.4FOX
Week 9 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Giants1-0 · Pwr +1.2
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Eagles1-0 · Pwr −0.4
NYG 50% modelproj 28–28
Third down +2.3Red zone +2.2FOX
Week 9 · Sun 4:05 pm ETno line
Texans0-1 · Pwr −2.6
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Chargers0-1 · Pwr −3.9
LAC 51% modelproj 25–25
Deep passing -2.9Rushing attack -2.6CBS
Week 9 · Sun 4:05 pm ETno line
Raiders1-0 · Pwr +2.7
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49ers1-0 · Pwr +5.2
SF 62% modelproj 19–23
Deep passing -2.4Early downs -2.0CBS
Week 9 · Sun 4:25 pm ETno line
Cardinals1-0 · Pwr +3.9
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Seahawks1-0 · Pwr +1.5
ARI 52% modelproj 23–22
Explosive plays -2.6Rushing attack -2.1FOX
Week 9 · Sun 4:25 pm ETno line
Packers0-1 · Pwr −3.2
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Patriots0-1 · Pwr −1.5
NE 59% modelproj 20–24
Red zone -3.4Pass protection vs pressure -3.2FOX
Week 9 · Sun 8:20 pm ETno line
Buccaneers0-1 · Pwr −1.0
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Bears1-0 · Pwr +2.9
CHI 66% modelproj 23–28
Ball security vs takeaways -3.1Points per drive +2.7NBC
Week 9 · Mon 8:15 pm ETno line
Bills1-0 · Pwr +2.6
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Vikings1-0 · Pwr +3.2
MIN 56% modelproj 24–26
Rushing attack -3.0Explosive plays +2.7ESPNABC
Model vs market
The model is deliberately simple: adjusted EPA ratings scaled to points. Treat edges as a conversation starter, not a betting system.
| Game | Score | Home spread | Model margin | Spread edge | O/U | Model total | Total edge | Home WP (model) | Home WP (market) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX @ BAL | – | +0.5 | – | – | 47.2 | – | 51% | – | |
| CIN @ ATL | – | −0.9 | – | – | 37.5 | – | 47% | – | |
| NYJ @ KC | – | −1.9 | – | – | 46.5 | – | 44% | – | |
| DET @ MIA | – | −0.6 | – | – | 42.6 | – | 48% | – | |
| DAL @ IND | – | −2.8 | – | – | 53.9 | – | 42% | – | |
| DEN @ CAR | – | −1.4 | – | – | 52.8 | – | 46% | – | |
| CLE @ NO | – | +8.6 | – | – | 47.3 | – | 74% | – | |
| LA @ WAS | – | +7.1 | – | – | 46.8 | – | 70% | – | |
| NYG @ PHI | – | −0.1 | – | – | 55.2 | – | 50% | – | |
| HOU @ LAC | – | +0.3 | – | – | 50.2 | – | 51% | – | |
| LV @ SF | – | +4.0 | – | – | 42.3 | – | 62% | – | |
| ARI @ SEA | – | −0.8 | – | – | 45.0 | – | 48% | – | |
| GB @ NE | – | +3.2 | – | – | 43.9 | – | 59% | – | |
| TB @ CHI | – | +5.5 | – | – | 51.3 | – | 66% | – | |
| BUF @ MIN | – | +2.1 | – | – | 49.2 | – | 56% | – |