Week 9 · Monday, Nov 9 · 8:15 pm ET · U.S. Bank Stadium (dome)
TBD referee · 8 rest days (BUF) / 8 (MIN)
Model
Projected BUF 25.1 – MIN 27.1
margin +2.1 · total 52.2
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| BUF | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| +2.6 10th | Power rating | 7th +3.2 |
| +3.4 4th | Offense rating | 12th +0.8 |
| −0.8 20th | Defense rating | 8th +2.4 |
| +0.278 4th | Offense EPA/play | 12th +0.071 |
| +0.071 20th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 8th −0.181 |
| 41.1% 21st | Offense success rate | 26th 38.7% |
| 48.1% 24th | Defense success rate allowed | 6th 38.2% |
| +0.556 3rd | Pass EPA/dropback | 10th +0.233 |
| +0.098 17th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 11th −0.059 |
| −0.263 28th | Rush EPA/carry | 22nd −0.125 |
| +0.030 24th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 2nd −0.438 |
| 14.3% 2nd | Explosive play rate | 29th 3.2% |
| 8.9% 16th | Explosive rate allowed | 30th 13.2% |
| 33.3% 18th | 3rd-down conversion | 5th 57.1% |
| 43.8% 20th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 8th 25.0% |
| 33.3% 26th | Red-zone TD rate | 1st 100.0% |
| 80.0% 20th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 3rd 25.0% |
| 9.1% 7th | Pressure rate allowed | 20th 16.1% |
| 21.4% 7th | Pressure rate | 1st 32.6% |
| 0.0% 1st | Turnover rate | 12th 7.7% |
| 18.2% 7th | Takeaway rate | 10th 16.7% |
| 36.0 5th | Points per game | 3rd 39.0 |
| 31.0 23rd | Points allowed per game | 12th 22.0 |
| +3.7% – | Pass rate over expected | – −8.0% |
| 28.0 9th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 26th 32.7 |
| +0.278 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.071 |
| +0.071 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.181 |
| +4.4 7th | Special teams EPA | 14th +3.0 |
BUF offense vs MIN defense
Offense percentiles for BUF against the matching defensive percentiles for MIN. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
BUFMIN D
MIN offense vs BUF defense
Offense percentiles for MIN against the matching defensive percentiles for BUF. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
MINBUF D