Week 9 · Sunday, Nov 8 · 4:25 pm ET · Gillette Stadium
TBD referee · 10 rest days (GB) / 7 (NE)
Model
Projected GB 21.9 – NE 25.1
margin +3.2 · total 47.0
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| GB | NE | |
|---|---|---|
| −3.2 26th | Power rating | 22nd −1.5 |
| −2.4 25th | Offense rating | 22nd −1.2 |
| −0.8 21st | Defense rating | 18th −0.3 |
| −0.181 25th | Offense EPA/play | 22nd −0.092 |
| +0.071 21st | Defense EPA/play allowed | 18th +0.029 |
| 38.2% 27th | Offense success rate | 23rd 40.9% |
| 38.7% 7th | Defense success rate allowed | 8th 38.8% |
| −0.059 22nd | Pass EPA/dropback | 15th +0.127 |
| +0.233 23rd | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 21st +0.196 |
| −0.438 31st | Rush EPA/carry | 32nd −0.451 |
| −0.125 11th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 8th −0.195 |
| 13.2% 3rd | Explosive play rate | 31st 1.4% |
| 3.2% 4th | Explosive rate allowed | 21st 10.2% |
| 25.0% 23rd | 3rd-down conversion | 21st 31.3% |
| 57.1% 27th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 4th 18.2% |
| 25.0% 29th | Red-zone TD rate | 20th 50.0% |
| 100.0% 23rd | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 1st 0.0% |
| 32.6% 32nd | Pressure rate allowed | 14th 14.3% |
| 16.1% 13th | Pressure rate | 6th 22.2% |
| 16.7% 21st | Turnover rate | 31st 33.3% |
| 7.7% 20th | Takeaway rate | 25th 0.0% |
| 22.0 20th | Points per game | 28th 10.0 |
| 39.0 30th | Points allowed per game | 6th 13.0 |
| −3.0% – | Pass rate over expected | – −3.5% |
| 19.3 1st | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 24th 31.9 |
| −0.181 – | Off epa last3 | – −0.092 |
| +0.071 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.029 |
| +3.5 12th | Special teams EPA | 18th +1.0 |
GB offense vs NE defense
Offense percentiles for GB against the matching defensive percentiles for NE. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
GBNE D
NE offense vs GB defense
Offense percentiles for NE against the matching defensive percentiles for GB. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
NEGB D