Week 7 matchups
Model projections from opponent-adjusted EPA ratings plus 1.5 points of home field, compared with the market. Edges are z-score differences between an offense and the defense it faces.
Week 7 · Thu 8:15 pm ETno line
Patriots0-1 · Pwr −1.5
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Bears1-0 · Pwr +2.9
CHI 67% modelproj 23–29
Ball security vs takeaways -2.4Rushing attack -2.2Prime Video
Week 7 · Sun 9:30 am ETno line
Steelers1-0 · Pwr +1.3
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Saints0-1 · Pwr +0.6
NO 52% modelproj 19–20
Deep passing +2.6Passing attack -2.4NFL Net
Week 7 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Buccaneers0-1 · Pwr −1.0
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Panthers0-1 · Pwr −2.9
TB 51% modelproj 26–25
Rushing attack +2.8Deep passing -2.5FOX
Week 7 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Giants1-0 · Pwr +1.2
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Texans0-1 · Pwr −2.6
NYG 57% modelproj 30–28
Passing attack +3.3Overall efficiency +3.1FOX
Week 7 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Bengals1-0 · Pwr +1.0
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Ravens1-0 · Pwr +5.5
BAL 67% modelproj 20–25
Deep passing +3.1Rushing attack +2.5CBS
Week 7 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
49ers1-0 · Pwr +5.2
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Falcons0-1 · Pwr −1.3
SF 65% modelproj 22–16
Passing attack -3.4Overall efficiency -3.1FOX
Week 7 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Colts0-1 · Pwr −5.5
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Vikings1-0 · Pwr +3.2
MIN 77% modelproj 17–27
Pass protection vs pressure -3.8Explosive plays +2.4CBS
Week 7 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Browns0-1 · Pwr −6.5
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Titans0-1 · Pwr −3.4
TEN 63% modelproj 21–26
Third down -2.7Ball security vs takeaways +2.4CBS
Week 7 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Dolphins0-1 · Pwr −2.7
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Jets1-0 · Pwr +3.4
NYJ 71% modelproj 17–25
Deep passing +3.4Pass protection vs pressure +2.8CBS
Week 7 · Sun 4:05 pm ETno line
Broncos0-0 · Pwr +0.0
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Cardinals1-0 · Pwr +3.9
ARI 65% modelproj 20–26
Rushing attack -1.6Ball security vs takeaways +1.2CBS
Week 7 · Sun 4:25 pm ETno line
Packers0-1 · Pwr −3.2
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Lions1-0 · Pwr −0.6
DET 62% modelproj 20–24
Pass protection vs pressure -2.1Rushing attack -1.9FOX
Week 7 · Sun 4:25 pm ETno line
Rams0-1 · Pwr −5.2
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Raiders1-0 · Pwr +2.7
LV 76% modelproj 16–26
Pass protection vs pressure -2.8Points per drive -2.7FOX
Week 7 · Sun 8:20 pm ETno line
Chiefs0-0 · Pwr +0.0
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Seahawks1-0 · Pwr +1.5
SEA 59% modelproj 21–24
Red zone -2.1Rushing attack -2.1NBC
Week 7 · Mon 8:15 pm ETno line
Cowboys0-1 · Pwr −1.2
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Eagles1-0 · Pwr −0.4
PHI 57% modelproj 26–29
Explosive plays -3.3Third down +2.9ESPNABC
Model vs market
The model is deliberately simple: adjusted EPA ratings scaled to points. Treat edges as a conversation starter, not a betting system.
| Game | Score | Home spread | Model margin | Spread edge | O/U | Model total | Total edge | Home WP (model) | Home WP (market) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE @ CHI | – | +5.9 | – | – | 51.5 | – | 67% | – | |
| PIT @ NO | – | +0.7 | – | – | 38.4 | – | 52% | – | |
| TB @ CAR | – | −0.4 | – | – | 51.3 | – | 49% | – | |
| NYG @ HOU | – | −2.3 | – | – | 58.5 | – | 43% | – | |
| CIN @ BAL | – | +5.9 | – | – | 44.9 | – | 67% | – | |
| SF @ ATL | – | −5.1 | – | – | 38.0 | – | 35% | – | |
| IND @ MIN | – | +10.1 | – | – | 44.6 | – | 77% | – | |
| CLE @ TEN | – | +4.6 | – | – | 47.3 | – | 63% | – | |
| MIA @ NYJ | – | +7.6 | – | – | 42.5 | – | 71% | – | |
| DEN @ ARI | – | +5.4 | – | – | 46.3 | – | 65% | – | |
| GB @ DET | – | +4.1 | – | – | 44.6 | – | 62% | – | |
| LA @ LV | – | +9.4 | – | – | 42.3 | – | 76% | – | |
| KC @ SEA | – | +3.0 | – | – | 45.9 | – | 59% | – | |
| DAL @ PHI | – | +2.3 | – | – | 55.2 | – | 57% | – |