Week 7 · Thursday, Oct 22 · 8:15 pm ET · Soldier Field
TBD referee · 4 rest days (NE) / 4 (CHI)
Model
Projected NE 24.3 – CHI 30.2
margin +5.9 · total 54.5
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| NE | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| −1.5 22nd | Power rating | 8th +2.9 |
| −1.2 22nd | Offense rating | 2nd +4.5 |
| −0.3 18th | Defense rating | 24th −1.6 |
| −0.092 22nd | Offense EPA/play | 2nd +0.361 |
| +0.029 18th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 24th +0.130 |
| 40.9% 23rd | Offense success rate | 4th 53.3% |
| 38.8% 8th | Defense success rate allowed | 22nd 47.1% |
| +0.127 15th | Pass EPA/dropback | 4th +0.551 |
| +0.196 21st | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 24th +0.242 |
| −0.451 32nd | Rush EPA/carry | 2nd +0.143 |
| −0.195 8th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 14th −0.106 |
| 1.4% 31st | Explosive play rate | 5th 12.0% |
| 10.2% 21st | Explosive rate allowed | 27th 11.8% |
| 31.3% 21st | 3rd-down conversion | 3rd 71.4% |
| 18.2% 4th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 21st 44.4% |
| 50.0% 20th | Red-zone TD rate | 1st 100.0% |
| 0.0% 1st | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 23rd 100.0% |
| 14.3% 14th | Pressure rate allowed | 5th 7.9% |
| 22.2% 6th | Pressure rate | 23rd 11.6% |
| 33.3% 31st | Turnover rate | 10th 7.1% |
| 0.0% 25th | Takeaway rate | 13th 15.4% |
| 10.0 28th | Points per game | 1st 59.0 |
| 13.0 6th | Points allowed per game | 29th 37.0 |
| −3.5% – | Pass rate over expected | – −1.7% |
| 31.9 24th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 12th 28.6 |
| −0.092 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.361 |
| +0.029 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.130 |
| +1.0 18th | Special teams EPA | 1st +6.4 |
NE offense vs CHI defense
Offense percentiles for NE against the matching defensive percentiles for CHI. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
NECHI D
CHI offense vs NE defense
Offense percentiles for CHI against the matching defensive percentiles for NE. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
CHINE D