Week 13 matchups
Model projections from opponent-adjusted EPA ratings plus 1.5 points of home field, compared with the market. Edges are z-score differences between an offense and the defense it faces.
Week 13 · Thu 8:15 pm ETno line
Chiefs0-0 · Pwr +0.0
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Rams0-1 · Pwr −5.2
KC 61% modelproj 25–21
Success rate +1.8Deep passing +1.7Prime Video
Week 13 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Jaguars1-0 · Pwr +6.5
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Bears1-0 · Pwr +2.9
JAX 56% modelproj 28–26
Explosive plays +3.0Early downs +2.6FOX
Week 13 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Bengals1-0 · Pwr +1.0
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Browns0-1 · Pwr −6.5
CIN 67% modelproj 26–20
Ball security vs takeaways -3.7Explosive plays +2.8CBS
Week 13 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Packers0-1 · Pwr −3.2
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Saints0-1 · Pwr +0.6
NO 65% modelproj 20–25
Pass protection vs pressure -2.8Rushing attack -1.9FOX
Week 13 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
49ers1-0 · Pwr +5.2
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Giants1-0 · Pwr +1.2
SF 58% modelproj 28–26
Third down +2.8Explosive plays -2.4FOX
Week 13 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Lions1-0 · Pwr −0.6
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Falcons0-1 · Pwr −1.3
ATL 52% modelproj 19–20
Passing attack -2.4Deep passing -1.9CBS
Week 13 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Chargers0-1 · Pwr −3.9
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Buccaneers0-1 · Pwr −1.0
TB 63% modelproj 20–25
Rushing attack +1.7Success rate +1.6CBS
Week 13 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Commanders0-1 · Pwr +0.4
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Titans0-1 · Pwr −3.4
WAS 57% modelproj 25–22
Pass protection vs pressure +3.0Ball security vs takeaways +2.4CBS
Week 13 · Sun 4:05 pm ETno line
Eagles1-0 · Pwr −0.4
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Cardinals1-0 · Pwr +3.9
ARI 67% modelproj 21–26
Ball security vs takeaways +2.4Success rate -2.3FOX
Week 13 · Sun 4:05 pm ETno line
Dolphins0-1 · Pwr −2.7
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Broncos0-0 · Pwr +0.0
DEN 62% modelproj 20–24
Deep passing +2.4Rushing attack -1.8FOX
Week 13 · Sun 4:25 pm ETno line
Panthers0-1 · Pwr −2.9
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Vikings1-0 · Pwr +3.2
MIN 71% modelproj 22–29
Points per drive +3.0Third down +2.6CBS
Week 13 · Sun 4:25 pm ETno line
Bills1-0 · Pwr +2.6
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Patriots0-1 · Pwr −1.5
BUF 58% modelproj 26–24
Red zone -3.2Deep passing +2.9CBS
Week 13 · Sun 8:20 pm ETno line
Texans0-1 · Pwr −2.6
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Steelers1-0 · Pwr +1.3
PIT 66% modelproj 19–24
Passing attack -2.3Success rate -2.1NBC
Week 13 · Mon 8:15 pm ETno line
Cowboys0-1 · Pwr −1.2
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Seahawks1-0 · Pwr +1.5
SEA 62% modelproj 25–29
Explosive plays -4.0Ball security vs takeaways -2.3ESPNABC
Model vs market
The model is deliberately simple: adjusted EPA ratings scaled to points. Treat edges as a conversation starter, not a betting system.
| Game | Score | Home spread | Model margin | Spread edge | O/U | Model total | Total edge | Home WP (model) | Home WP (market) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC @ LA | – | −3.7 | – | – | 46.2 | – | 39% | – | |
| JAX @ CHI | – | −2.1 | – | – | 53.6 | – | 44% | – | |
| CIN @ CLE | – | −6.0 | – | – | 46.4 | – | 33% | – | |
| GB @ NO | – | +5.3 | – | – | 44.6 | – | 65% | – | |
| SF @ NYG | – | −2.6 | – | – | 53.7 | – | 42% | – | |
| DET @ ATL | – | +0.7 | – | – | 38.4 | – | 52% | – | |
| LAC @ TB | – | +4.3 | – | – | 44.8 | – | 63% | – | |
| WAS @ TEN | – | −2.3 | – | – | 47.0 | – | 43% | – | |
| PHI @ ARI | – | +5.8 | – | – | 46.9 | – | 67% | – | |
| MIA @ DEN | – | +4.2 | – | – | 43.2 | – | 62% | – | |
| CAR @ MIN | – | +7.6 | – | – | 50.9 | – | 71% | – | |
| BUF @ NE | – | −2.6 | – | – | 49.7 | – | 42% | – | |
| HOU @ PIT | – | +5.4 | – | – | 42.9 | – | 66% | – | |
| DAL @ SEA | – | +4.2 | – | – | 53.3 | – | 62% | – |