Week 13 · Sunday, Dec 6 · 1:00 pm ET · Caesars Superdome (dome)
TBD referee · 11 rest days (GB) / 7 (NO)
Model
Projected GB 21.2 – NO 26.5
margin +5.3 · total 47.7
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| GB | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| −3.2 26th | Power rating | 15th +0.6 |
| −2.4 25th | Offense rating | 17th +0.2 |
| −0.8 21st | Defense rating | 14th +0.4 |
| −0.181 25th | Offense EPA/play | 17th +0.019 |
| +0.071 21st | Defense EPA/play allowed | 14th −0.027 |
| 38.2% 27th | Offense success rate | 15th 43.8% |
| 38.7% 7th | Defense success rate allowed | 20th 45.5% |
| −0.059 22nd | Pass EPA/dropback | 17th +0.052 |
| +0.233 23rd | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 14th +0.012 |
| −0.438 31st | Rush EPA/carry | 15th −0.075 |
| −0.125 11th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 19th −0.072 |
| 13.2% 3rd | Explosive play rate | 16th 9.0% |
| 3.2% 4th | Explosive rate allowed | 22nd 10.4% |
| 25.0% 23rd | 3rd-down conversion | 10th 47.1% |
| 57.1% 27th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 17th 38.5% |
| 25.0% 29th | Red-zone TD rate | 10th 80.0% |
| 100.0% 23rd | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 20th 80.0% |
| 32.6% 32nd | Pressure rate allowed | 14th 14.3% |
| 16.1% 13th | Pressure rate | 9th 19.5% |
| 16.7% 21st | Turnover rate | 29th 21.4% |
| 7.7% 20th | Takeaway rate | 24th 6.7% |
| 22.0 20th | Points per game | 11th 30.0 |
| 39.0 30th | Points allowed per game | 23rd 31.0 |
| −3.0% – | Pass rate over expected | – +4.1% |
| 19.3 1st | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 2nd 21.6 |
| −0.181 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.019 |
| +0.071 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.027 |
| +3.5 12th | Special teams EPA | 29th −2.4 |
GB offense vs NO defense
Offense percentiles for GB against the matching defensive percentiles for NO. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
GBNO D
NO offense vs GB defense
Offense percentiles for NO against the matching defensive percentiles for GB. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
NOGB D