Week 13 · Sunday, Dec 6 · 1:00 pm ET · Raymond James Stadium
TBD referee · 7 rest days (LAC) / 6 (TB)
Model
Projected LAC 21.8 – TB 26.1
margin +4.3 · total 47.8
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| LAC | TB | |
|---|---|---|
| −3.9 28th | Power rating | 19th −1.0 |
| −2.2 24th | Offense rating | 21st −1.1 |
| −1.7 25th | Defense rating | 15th +0.0 |
| −0.167 24th | Offense EPA/play | 21st −0.081 |
| +0.139 25th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 15th +0.001 |
| 40.0% 24th | Offense success rate | 5th 51.8% |
| 48.6% 27th | Defense success rate allowed | 23rd 47.6% |
| −0.087 23rd | Pass EPA/dropback | 25th −0.168 |
| +0.270 25th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 12th −0.030 |
| −0.360 29th | Rush EPA/carry | 4th +0.118 |
| −0.044 22nd | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 25th +0.050 |
| 5.5% 25th | Explosive play rate | 26th 5.4% |
| 5.6% 9th | Explosive rate allowed | 26th 11.1% |
| 25.0% 23rd | 3rd-down conversion | 9th 50.0% |
| 46.2% 22nd | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 27th 57.1% |
| 66.7% 15th | Red-zone TD rate | 20th 50.0% |
| 40.0% 7th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 7th 40.0% |
| 11.4% 9th | Pressure rate allowed | 22nd 16.7% |
| 12.8% 21st | Pressure rate | 12th 16.2% |
| 20.0% 27th | Turnover rate | 32nd 40.0% |
| 0.0% 25th | Takeaway rate | 18th 10.0% |
| 14.0 24th | Points per game | 13th 27.0 |
| 26.0 17th | Points allowed per game | 26th 33.0 |
| +0.3% – | Pass rate over expected | – +2.7% |
| 29.9 16th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 15th 29.8 |
| −0.167 – | Off epa last3 | – −0.081 |
| +0.139 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.001 |
| −4.3 31st | Special teams EPA | 4th +5.2 |
LAC offense vs TB defense
Offense percentiles for LAC against the matching defensive percentiles for TB. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
LACTB D
TB offense vs LAC defense
Offense percentiles for TB against the matching defensive percentiles for LAC. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
TBLAC D