Week 13 · Sunday, Dec 6 · 4:05 pm ET · Empower Field at Mile High
TBD referee · 7 rest days (MIA) / 9 (DEN)
Model
Projected MIA 22.3 – DEN 20.2
margin −2.1 · total 42.5
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| MIA | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| −2.7 24th | Power rating | 31st −6.2 |
| −3.1 29th | Offense rating | 32nd −4.8 |
| +0.4 13th | Defense rating | 22nd −1.4 |
| −0.242 29th | Offense EPA/play | 32nd −0.378 |
| −0.029 13th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 22nd +0.118 |
| 34.6% 30th | Offense success rate | 29th 36.0% |
| 43.1% 15th | Defense success rate allowed | 11th 40.9% |
| −0.183 26th | Pass EPA/dropback | 31st −0.442 |
| +0.027 15th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 13th −0.014 |
| −0.399 30th | Rush EPA/carry | 26th −0.228 |
| −0.083 17th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 32nd +0.259 |
| 10.9% 10th | Explosive play rate | 30th 2.0% |
| 7.7% 13th | Explosive rate allowed | 18th 9.1% |
| 20.0% 27th | 3rd-down conversion | 30th 16.7% |
| 41.7% 18th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 26th 56.3% |
| 33.3% 26th | Red-zone TD rate | 20th 50.0% |
| 75.0% 18th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 13th 60.0% |
| 24.3% 28th | Pressure rate allowed | 25th 21.2% |
| 6.5% 29th | Pressure rate | 15th 15.2% |
| 18.2% 24th | Turnover rate | 21st 16.7% |
| 18.2% 7th | Takeaway rate | 19th 8.3% |
| 13.0 25th | Points per game | 28th 10.0 |
| 27.0 18th | Points allowed per game | 23rd 31.0 |
| −2.7% – | Pass rate over expected | – +1.7% |
| 34.4 29th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 27th 33.5 |
| −0.242 – | Off epa last3 | – −0.378 |
| −0.029 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.118 |
| −1.2 27th | Special teams EPA | 10th +3.6 |
MIA offense vs DEN defense
Offense percentiles for MIA against the matching defensive percentiles for DEN. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
MIADEN D
DEN offense vs MIA defense
Offense percentiles for DEN against the matching defensive percentiles for MIA. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
DENMIA D