Week 13 · Sunday, Dec 6 · 8:20 pm ET · Acrisure Stadium
TBD referee · 7 rest days (HOU) / 9 (PIT)
Model
Projected HOU 20.2 – PIT 25.7
margin +5.4 · total 45.9
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| HOU | PIT | |
|---|---|---|
| −2.6 23rd | Power rating | 12th +1.3 |
| +0.8 13th | Offense rating | 30th −3.2 |
| −3.4 29th | Defense rating | 2nd +4.6 |
| +0.071 13th | Offense EPA/play | 30th −0.252 |
| +0.278 29th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 2nd −0.358 |
| 48.1% 9th | Offense success rate | 32nd 33.9% |
| 41.1% 12th | Defense success rate allowed | 5th 36.7% |
| +0.098 16th | Pass EPA/dropback | 27th −0.251 |
| +0.556 30th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 1st −0.638 |
| +0.030 9th | Rush EPA/carry | 27th −0.252 |
| −0.263 5th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 13th −0.113 |
| 8.9% 17th | Explosive play rate | 22nd 6.2% |
| 14.3% 31st | Explosive rate allowed | 20th 10.0% |
| 43.8% 13th | 3rd-down conversion | 23rd 25.0% |
| 33.3% 13th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 2nd 16.7% |
| 80.0% 10th | Red-zone TD rate | 20th 50.0% |
| 33.3% 4th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | – – |
| 21.4% 26th | Pressure rate allowed | 13th 14.0% |
| 9.1% 26th | Pressure rate | 10th 19.2% |
| 18.2% 24th | Turnover rate | 10th 7.1% |
| 0.0% 25th | Takeaway rate | 13th 15.4% |
| 31.0 8th | Points per game | 22nd 20.0 |
| 36.0 28th | Points allowed per game | 6th 13.0 |
| −4.8% – | Pass rate over expected | – +11.2% |
| 31.1 21st | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 6th 25.7 |
| +0.071 – | Off epa last3 | – −0.252 |
| +0.278 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.358 |
| +4.3 9th | Special teams EPA | 19th +0.8 |
HOU offense vs PIT defense
Offense percentiles for HOU against the matching defensive percentiles for PIT. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
HOUPIT D
PIT offense vs HOU defense
Offense percentiles for PIT against the matching defensive percentiles for HOU. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
PITHOU D