Week 14 matchups
Model projections from opponent-adjusted EPA ratings plus 1.5 points of home field, compared with the market. Edges are z-score differences between an offense and the defense it faces.
Week 14 · Thu 8:15 pm ETno line
Vikings1-0 · Pwr +3.2
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Patriots0-1 · Pwr −1.5
MIN 59% modelproj 24–20
Rushing attack -4.2Ball security vs takeaways -2.5Prime Video
Week 14 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Buccaneers0-1 · Pwr −1.0
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Ravens1-0 · Pwr +5.5
BAL 72% modelproj 18–26
Ball security vs takeaways -3.2Rushing attack +2.6FOX
Week 14 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Texans0-1 · Pwr −2.6
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Commanders0-1 · Pwr +0.4
WAS 63% modelproj 24–28
Ball security vs takeaways +2.4Pass protection vs pressure +2.3CBS
Week 14 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Colts0-1 · Pwr −5.5
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Eagles1-0 · Pwr −0.4
PHI 69% modelproj 20–27
Red zone +2.2Rushing attack +1.6FOX
Week 14 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Broncos0-0 · Pwr +0.0
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Jets1-0 · Pwr +3.4
NYJ 64% modelproj 21–26
Pass protection vs pressure +1.6Points per drive -1.3CBS
Week 14 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Bears1-0 · Pwr +2.9
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Dolphins0-1 · Pwr −2.7
CHI 62% modelproj 26–22
Points per drive +2.4Pass protection vs pressure +2.2CBS
Week 14 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Titans0-1 · Pwr −3.4
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Lions1-0 · Pwr −0.6
DET 62% modelproj 21–25
Ball security vs takeaways +1.7Red zone +1.6FOX
Week 14 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Saints0-1 · Pwr +0.6
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Panthers0-1 · Pwr −2.9
NO 56% modelproj 27–25
Third down +2.1Points per drive +2.1CBS
Week 14 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Falcons0-1 · Pwr −1.3
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Browns0-1 · Pwr −6.5
ATL 61% modelproj 22–18
Red zone -2.6Explosive plays +2.5CBS
Week 14 · Sun 4:05 pm ETno line
Chargers0-1 · Pwr −3.9
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Raiders1-0 · Pwr +2.7
LV 72% modelproj 17–25
Rushing attack -3.4Overall efficiency -2.2CBS
Week 14 · Sun 4:25 pm ETno line
Giants1-0 · Pwr +1.2
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Seahawks1-0 · Pwr +1.5
SEA 56% modelproj 26–28
Explosive plays -2.5Ball security vs takeaways -2.3FOX
Week 14 · Sun 4:25 pm ETno line
Chiefs0-0 · Pwr +0.0
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Bengals1-0 · Pwr +1.0
CIN 57% modelproj 22–24
Ball security vs takeaways -2.7Deep passing +1.4FOX
Week 14 · Sun 4:25 pm ETno line
Rams0-1 · Pwr −5.2
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49ers1-0 · Pwr +5.2
SF 81% modelproj 17–29
Success rate +3.6Pass protection vs pressure -3.2FOX
Week 14 · Sun 8:20 pm ETno line
Bills1-0 · Pwr +2.6
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Packers0-1 · Pwr −3.2
BUF 62% modelproj 27–22
Pass protection vs pressure -3.1Deep passing +2.6NBC
Week 14 · Mon 8:15 pm ETno line
Steelers1-0 · Pwr +1.3
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Jaguars1-0 · Pwr +6.5
JAX 69% modelproj 17–23
Deep passing +2.7Red zone -2.6ESPN
Model vs market
The model is deliberately simple: adjusted EPA ratings scaled to points. Treat edges as a conversation starter, not a betting system.
| Game | Score | Home spread | Model margin | Spread edge | O/U | Model total | Total edge | Home WP (model) | Home WP (market) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN @ NE | – | −3.2 | – | – | 43.9 | – | 41% | – | |
| TB @ BAL | – | +8.0 | – | – | 44.9 | – | 72% | – | |
| HOU @ WAS | – | +4.5 | – | – | 51.6 | – | 63% | – | |
| IND @ PHI | – | +6.6 | – | – | 47.0 | – | 69% | – | |
| DEN @ NYJ | – | +4.9 | – | – | 46.5 | – | 64% | – | |
| CHI @ MIA | – | −4.1 | – | – | 48.9 | – | 38% | – | |
| TEN @ DET | – | +4.3 | – | – | 45.8 | – | 62% | – | |
| NO @ CAR | – | −2.0 | – | – | 52.2 | – | 44% | – | |
| ATL @ CLE | – | −3.7 | – | – | 39.8 | – | 39% | – | |
| LAC @ LV | – | +8.0 | – | – | 42.4 | – | 72% | – | |
| NYG @ SEA | – | +1.9 | – | – | 53.3 | – | 56% | – | |
| KC @ CIN | – | +2.5 | – | – | 45.7 | – | 57% | – | |
| LA @ SF | – | +12.0 | – | – | 45.2 | – | 81% | – | |
| BUF @ GB | – | −4.3 | – | – | 49.2 | – | 38% | – | |
| PIT @ JAX | – | +6.7 | – | – | 39.8 | – | 69% | – |