Week 14 · Sunday, Dec 13 · 1:00 pm ET · Hard Rock Stadium
TBD referee · 7 rest days (CHI) / 7 (MIA)
Model
Projected CHI 28.0 – MIA 23.9
margin −4.1 · total 51.9
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| CHI | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| +2.9 8th | Power rating | 24th −2.7 |
| +4.5 2nd | Offense rating | 29th −3.1 |
| −1.6 24th | Defense rating | 13th +0.4 |
| +0.361 2nd | Offense EPA/play | 29th −0.242 |
| +0.130 24th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 13th −0.029 |
| 53.3% 4th | Offense success rate | 30th 34.6% |
| 47.1% 22nd | Defense success rate allowed | 15th 43.1% |
| +0.551 4th | Pass EPA/dropback | 26th −0.183 |
| +0.242 24th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 15th +0.027 |
| +0.143 2nd | Rush EPA/carry | 30th −0.399 |
| −0.106 14th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 17th −0.083 |
| 12.0% 5th | Explosive play rate | 10th 10.9% |
| 11.8% 27th | Explosive rate allowed | 13th 7.7% |
| 71.4% 3rd | 3rd-down conversion | 27th 20.0% |
| 44.4% 21st | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 18th 41.7% |
| 100.0% 1st | Red-zone TD rate | 26th 33.3% |
| 100.0% 23rd | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 18th 75.0% |
| 7.9% 5th | Pressure rate allowed | 28th 24.3% |
| 11.6% 23rd | Pressure rate | 29th 6.5% |
| 7.1% 10th | Turnover rate | 24th 18.2% |
| 15.4% 13th | Takeaway rate | 7th 18.2% |
| 59.0 1st | Points per game | 25th 13.0 |
| 37.0 29th | Points allowed per game | 18th 27.0 |
| −1.7% – | Pass rate over expected | – −2.7% |
| 28.6 12th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 29th 34.4 |
| +0.361 – | Off epa last3 | – −0.242 |
| +0.130 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.029 |
| +6.4 1st | Special teams EPA | 27th −1.2 |
CHI offense vs MIA defense
Offense percentiles for CHI against the matching defensive percentiles for MIA. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
CHIMIA D
MIA offense vs CHI defense
Offense percentiles for MIA against the matching defensive percentiles for CHI. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
MIACHI D