Week 17 matchups
Model projections from opponent-adjusted EPA ratings plus 1.5 points of home field, compared with the market. Edges are z-score differences between an offense and the defense it faces.
Week 17 · Thu 8:15 pm ETno line
Ravens1-0 · Pwr +5.5
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Bengals1-0 · Pwr +1.0
BAL 59% modelproj 24–21
Deep passing +3.1Rushing attack +2.5Prime Video
Week 17 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Saints0-1 · Pwr +0.6
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Falcons0-1 · Pwr −1.3
NO 51% modelproj 19–19
Passing attack -2.6Overall efficiency -2.1FOX
Week 17 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Steelers1-0 · Pwr +1.3
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Titans0-1 · Pwr −3.4
PIT 59% modelproj 21–18
Passing attack -3.1Overall efficiency -2.7CBS
Week 17 · Sun Jan 3 · TBDno line
Rams0-1 · Pwr −5.2
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Buccaneers0-1 · Pwr −1.0
TB 66% modelproj 19–25
Success rate +2.8Rushing attack +2.8
Week 17 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Vikings1-0 · Pwr +3.2
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Jets1-0 · Pwr +3.4
NYJ 55% modelproj 21–23
Early downs -2.6Explosive plays -2.5CBS
Week 17 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Seahawks1-0 · Pwr +1.5
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Panthers0-1 · Pwr −2.9
SEA 59% modelproj 27–24
Ball security vs takeaways -2.4Rushing attack -2.2FOX
Week 17 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Colts0-1 · Pwr −5.5
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Browns0-1 · Pwr −6.5
CLE 51% modelproj 23–24
Explosive plays +3.3Red zone +2.2FOX
Week 17 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Giants1-0 · Pwr +1.2
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Cowboys0-1 · Pwr −1.2
NYG 52% modelproj 31–31
Third down +5.4Explosive plays -4.4FOX
Week 17 · Sun Jan 3 · TBDno line
Commanders0-1 · Pwr +0.4
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Jaguars1-0 · Pwr +6.5
JAX 71% modelproj 20–28
Explosive plays +2.4Ball security vs takeaways +2.4
Week 17 · Sun Jan 3 · TBDno line
Chiefs0-0 · Pwr +0.0
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Chargers0-1 · Pwr −3.9
KC 57% modelproj 24–22
Rushing attack -1.6Ball security vs takeaways +1.2
Week 17 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Bills1-0 · Pwr +2.6
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Dolphins0-1 · Pwr −2.7
BUF 61% modelproj 25–22
Deep passing +2.5Deep passing +2.4CBS
Week 17 · Sun Jan 3 · TBDno line
Broncos0-0 · Pwr +0.0
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Patriots0-1 · Pwr −1.5
DEN 50% modelproj 23–23
Red zone -2.1Rushing attack -2.1
Week 17 · Sun 4:05 pm ETno line
Raiders1-0 · Pwr +2.7
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Cardinals1-0 · Pwr +3.9
ARI 58% modelproj 20–23
Red zone -1.9Pass protection vs pressure +1.8CBS
Week 17 · Sun 4:25 pm ETno line
Lions1-0 · Pwr −0.6
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Bears1-0 · Pwr +2.9
CHI 64% modelproj 24–29
Third down +2.1Points per drive +2.1FOX
Week 17 · Sun 8:20 pm ETno line
Eagles1-0 · Pwr −0.4
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49ers1-0 · Pwr +5.2
SF 70% modelproj 20–27
Pass protection vs pressure +2.7Early downs -1.9NBC
Week 17 · Mon 8:15 pm ETno line
Texans0-1 · Pwr −2.6
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Packers0-1 · Pwr −3.2
GB 53% modelproj 24–25
Rushing attack -3.0Explosive plays +2.7ESPN
Model vs market
The model is deliberately simple: adjusted EPA ratings scaled to points. Treat edges as a conversation starter, not a betting system.
| Game | Score | Home spread | Model margin | Spread edge | O/U | Model total | Total edge | Home WP (model) | Home WP (market) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL @ CIN | – | −2.9 | – | – | 44.9 | – | 41% | – | |
| NO @ ATL | – | −0.4 | – | – | 38.4 | – | 49% | – | |
| PIT @ TEN | – | −3.2 | – | – | 38.3 | – | 41% | – | |
| LA @ TB | – | +5.7 | – | – | 44.7 | – | 66% | – | |
| MIN @ NYJ | – | +1.7 | – | – | 44.6 | – | 55% | – | |
| SEA @ CAR | – | −2.9 | – | – | 51.5 | – | 41% | – | |
| IND @ CLE | – | +0.5 | – | – | 47.2 | – | 51% | – | |
| NYG @ DAL | – | −0.8 | – | – | 62.1 | – | 48% | – | |
| WAS @ JAX | – | +7.6 | – | – | 48.5 | – | 71% | – | |
| KC @ LAC | – | −2.4 | – | – | 46.3 | – | 43% | – | |
| BUF @ MIA | – | −3.8 | – | – | 47.1 | – | 39% | – | |
| DEN @ NE | – | −0.0 | – | – | 45.9 | – | 50% | – | |
| LV @ ARI | – | +2.7 | – | – | 42.4 | – | 58% | – | |
| DET @ CHI | – | +5.0 | – | – | 52.2 | – | 64% | – | |
| PHI @ SF | – | +7.1 | – | – | 46.8 | – | 70% | – | |
| HOU @ GB | – | +0.9 | – | – | 49.2 | – | 53% | – |