Week 17 · Thursday, Dec 31 · 8:15 pm ET · Paycor Stadium
Baltimore Ravens1-0 · +5.5 power
@
no line · Division game Prime Video
Cincinnati Bengals1-0 · +1.0 power
TBD referee · 4 rest days (BAL) / 4 (CIN)
Model
Projected BAL 25.4 – CIN 22.5
margin −2.9 · total 48.0
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| BAL | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.5 3rd | Power rating | 14th +1.0 |
| +2.6 6th | Offense rating | 18th −0.0 |
| +2.9 6th | Defense rating | 12th +1.1 |
| +0.209 6th | Offense EPA/play | 18th +0.001 |
| −0.225 6th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 12th −0.081 |
| 46.9% 12th | Offense success rate | 10th 47.6% |
| 42.6% 13th | Defense success rate allowed | 28th 51.8% |
| +0.316 7th | Pass EPA/dropback | 21st −0.030 |
| −0.410 3rd | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 8th −0.168 |
| +0.102 6th | Rush EPA/carry | 8th +0.050 |
| +0.116 28th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 29th +0.118 |
| 10.9% 8th | Explosive play rate | 7th 11.1% |
| 13.0% 29th | Explosive rate allowed | 7th 5.4% |
| 37.5% 17th | 3rd-down conversion | 5th 57.1% |
| 30.0% 11th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 24th 50.0% |
| 75.0% 13th | Red-zone TD rate | 24th 40.0% |
| 100.0% 23rd | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 9th 50.0% |
| 10.3% 8th | Pressure rate allowed | 21st 16.2% |
| 26.5% 4th | Pressure rate | 11th 16.7% |
| 7.7% 12th | Turnover rate | 15th 10.0% |
| 16.7% 10th | Takeaway rate | 1st 40.0% |
| 41.0 2nd | Points per game | 7th 33.0 |
| 23.0 14th | Points allowed per game | 18th 27.0 |
| −5.8% – | Pass rate over expected | – +5.7% |
| 30.8 19th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 3rd 23.1 |
| +0.209 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.001 |
| −0.225 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.081 |
| +4.8 6th | Special teams EPA | 3rd +5.6 |
BAL offense vs CIN defense
Offense percentiles for BAL against the matching defensive percentiles for CIN. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
BALCIN D
CIN offense vs BAL defense
Offense percentiles for CIN against the matching defensive percentiles for BAL. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
CINBAL D