Week 17 · Sunday, Jan 3 · 1:00 pm ET · Hard Rock Stadium
TBD referee · 9 rest days (BUF) / 7 (MIA)
Model
Projected BUF 27.0 – MIA 23.2
margin −3.8 · total 50.2
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| BUF | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| +2.6 10th | Power rating | 24th −2.7 |
| +3.4 4th | Offense rating | 29th −3.1 |
| −0.8 20th | Defense rating | 13th +0.4 |
| +0.278 4th | Offense EPA/play | 29th −0.242 |
| +0.071 20th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 13th −0.029 |
| 41.1% 21st | Offense success rate | 30th 34.6% |
| 48.1% 24th | Defense success rate allowed | 15th 43.1% |
| +0.556 3rd | Pass EPA/dropback | 26th −0.183 |
| +0.098 17th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 15th +0.027 |
| −0.263 28th | Rush EPA/carry | 30th −0.399 |
| +0.030 24th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 17th −0.083 |
| 14.3% 2nd | Explosive play rate | 10th 10.9% |
| 8.9% 16th | Explosive rate allowed | 13th 7.7% |
| 33.3% 18th | 3rd-down conversion | 27th 20.0% |
| 43.8% 20th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 18th 41.7% |
| 33.3% 26th | Red-zone TD rate | 26th 33.3% |
| 80.0% 20th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 18th 75.0% |
| 9.1% 7th | Pressure rate allowed | 28th 24.3% |
| 21.4% 7th | Pressure rate | 29th 6.5% |
| 0.0% 1st | Turnover rate | 24th 18.2% |
| 18.2% 7th | Takeaway rate | 7th 18.2% |
| 36.0 5th | Points per game | 25th 13.0 |
| 31.0 23rd | Points allowed per game | 18th 27.0 |
| +3.7% – | Pass rate over expected | – −2.7% |
| 28.0 9th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 29th 34.4 |
| +0.278 – | Off epa last3 | – −0.242 |
| +0.071 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.029 |
| +4.4 7th | Special teams EPA | 27th −1.2 |
BUF offense vs MIA defense
Offense percentiles for BUF against the matching defensive percentiles for MIA. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
BUFMIA D
MIA offense vs BUF defense
Offense percentiles for MIA against the matching defensive percentiles for BUF. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
MIABUF D