Week 17 · Sunday, Jan 3 · 1:00 pm ET · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
TBD referee · 7 rest days (NO) / 7 (ATL)
Model
Projected NO 20.9 – ATL 20.5
margin −0.4 · total 41.4
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| NO | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| +0.6 15th | Power rating | 21st −1.3 |
| +0.2 17th | Offense rating | 31st −4.6 |
| +0.4 14th | Defense rating | 3rd +3.2 |
| +0.019 17th | Offense EPA/play | 31st −0.358 |
| −0.027 14th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 3rd −0.252 |
| 43.8% 15th | Offense success rate | 28th 36.7% |
| 45.5% 20th | Defense success rate allowed | 1st 33.9% |
| +0.052 17th | Pass EPA/dropback | 32nd −0.638 |
| +0.012 14th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 6th −0.251 |
| −0.075 15th | Rush EPA/carry | 20th −0.113 |
| −0.072 19th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 6th −0.252 |
| 9.0% 16th | Explosive play rate | 13th 10.0% |
| 10.4% 22nd | Explosive rate allowed | 11th 6.2% |
| 47.1% 10th | 3rd-down conversion | 30th 16.7% |
| 38.5% 17th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 8th 25.0% |
| 80.0% 10th | Red-zone TD rate | – – |
| 80.0% 20th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 9th 50.0% |
| 14.3% 14th | Pressure rate allowed | 23rd 19.2% |
| 19.5% 9th | Pressure rate | 20th 14.0% |
| 21.4% 29th | Turnover rate | 19th 15.4% |
| 6.7% 24th | Takeaway rate | 22nd 7.1% |
| 30.0 11th | Points per game | 25th 13.0 |
| 31.0 23rd | Points allowed per game | 10th 20.0 |
| +4.1% – | Pass rate over expected | – −17.1% |
| 21.6 2nd | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 18th 30.7 |
| +0.019 – | Off epa last3 | – −0.358 |
| −0.027 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.252 |
| −2.4 29th | Special teams EPA | 28th −2.3 |
NO offense vs ATL defense
Offense percentiles for NO against the matching defensive percentiles for ATL. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
NOATL D
ATL offense vs NO defense
Offense percentiles for ATL against the matching defensive percentiles for NO. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
ATLNO D