Week 17 · Sunday, Jan 3 · 1:00 pm ET · Gillette Stadium
TBD referee · 9 rest days (DEN) / 7 (NE)
Model
Projected DEN 19.4 – NE 25.7
margin +6.2 · total 45.1
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| DEN | NE | |
|---|---|---|
| −6.2 31st | Power rating | 22nd −1.5 |
| −4.8 32nd | Offense rating | 22nd −1.2 |
| −1.4 22nd | Defense rating | 18th −0.3 |
| −0.378 32nd | Offense EPA/play | 22nd −0.092 |
| +0.118 22nd | Defense EPA/play allowed | 18th +0.029 |
| 36.0% 29th | Offense success rate | 23rd 40.9% |
| 40.9% 11th | Defense success rate allowed | 8th 38.8% |
| −0.442 31st | Pass EPA/dropback | 15th +0.127 |
| −0.014 13th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 21st +0.196 |
| −0.228 26th | Rush EPA/carry | 32nd −0.451 |
| +0.259 32nd | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 8th −0.195 |
| 2.0% 30th | Explosive play rate | 31st 1.4% |
| 9.1% 18th | Explosive rate allowed | 21st 10.2% |
| 16.7% 30th | 3rd-down conversion | 21st 31.3% |
| 56.3% 26th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 4th 18.2% |
| 50.0% 20th | Red-zone TD rate | 20th 50.0% |
| 60.0% 13th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 1st 0.0% |
| 21.2% 25th | Pressure rate allowed | 14th 14.3% |
| 15.2% 15th | Pressure rate | 6th 22.2% |
| 16.7% 21st | Turnover rate | 31st 33.3% |
| 8.3% 19th | Takeaway rate | 25th 0.0% |
| 10.0 28th | Points per game | 28th 10.0 |
| 31.0 23rd | Points allowed per game | 6th 13.0 |
| +1.7% – | Pass rate over expected | – −3.5% |
| 33.5 27th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 24th 31.9 |
| −0.378 – | Off epa last3 | – −0.092 |
| +0.118 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.029 |
| +3.6 10th | Special teams EPA | 18th +1.0 |
DEN offense vs NE defense
Offense percentiles for DEN against the matching defensive percentiles for NE. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
DENNE D
NE offense vs DEN defense
Offense percentiles for NE against the matching defensive percentiles for DEN. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
NEDEN D