Week 10 matchups
Model projections from opponent-adjusted EPA ratings plus 1.5 points of home field, compared with the market. Edges are z-score differences between an offense and the defense it faces.
Week 10 · Thu 8:15 pm ETno line
Commanders0-1 · Pwr +0.4
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Giants1-0 · Pwr +1.2
NYG 57% modelproj 26–29
Explosive plays -3.3Third down +2.9Prime Video
Week 10 · Sun 9:30 am ETno line
Patriots0-1 · Pwr −1.5
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Lions1-0 · Pwr −0.6
DET 57% modelproj 21–24
Ball security vs takeaways -3.0Rushing attack -2.0FOX
Week 10 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Vikings1-0 · Pwr +3.2
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Packers0-1 · Pwr −3.2
MIN 64% modelproj 24–19
Pass protection vs pressure -4.6Rushing attack -4.1FOX
Week 10 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Dolphins0-1 · Pwr −2.7
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Colts0-1 · Pwr −5.5
MIA 54% modelproj 22–21
Early downs -2.4Passing attack -1.8CBS
Week 10 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Texans0-1 · Pwr −2.6
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Browns0-1 · Pwr −6.5
HOU 57% modelproj 27–25
Red zone -3.2Success rate +2.6FOX
Week 10 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Chiefs0-0 · Pwr +0.0
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Falcons0-1 · Pwr −1.3
ATL 50% modelproj 19–20
Passing attack -2.3Overall efficiency -1.9CBS
Week 10 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Panthers0-1 · Pwr −2.9
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Saints0-1 · Pwr +0.6
NO 64% modelproj 24–29
Third down +2.1Points per drive +2.1FOX
Week 10 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Jaguars1-0 · Pwr +6.5
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Titans0-1 · Pwr −3.4
JAX 73% modelproj 28–19
Passing attack +2.8Explosive plays +2.8FOX
Week 10 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Bills1-0 · Pwr +2.6
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Jets1-0 · Pwr +3.4
NYJ 57% modelproj 24–26
Deep passing +3.1Ball security vs takeaways +2.4CBS
Week 10 · Sun 4:05 pm ETno line
Rams0-1 · Pwr −5.2
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Cardinals1-0 · Pwr +3.9
ARI 78% modelproj 17–28
Points per drive -2.4Success rate +2.4CBS
Week 10 · Sun 4:05 pm ETno line
Seahawks1-0 · Pwr +1.5
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Raiders1-0 · Pwr +2.7
LV 58% modelproj 20–22
Red zone -3.2Ball security vs takeaways -2.7CBS
Week 10 · Sun 4:25 pm ETno line
49ers1-0 · Pwr +5.2
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Cowboys0-1 · Pwr −1.2
SF 64% modelproj 29–24
Success rate +3.9Third down +3.7FOX
Week 10 · Sun 8:20 pm ETno line
Steelers1-0 · Pwr +1.3
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Bengals1-0 · Pwr +1.0
CIN 54% modelproj 18–19
Passing attack -2.7Deep passing +2.7NBC
Week 10 · Mon 8:15 pm ETno line
Chargers0-1 · Pwr −3.9
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Ravens1-0 · Pwr +5.5
BAL 79% modelproj 17–28
Passing attack -2.2Overall efficiency -2.1ESPN
Model vs market
The model is deliberately simple: adjusted EPA ratings scaled to points. Treat edges as a conversation starter, not a betting system.
| Game | Score | Home spread | Model margin | Spread edge | O/U | Model total | Total edge | Home WP (model) | Home WP (market) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS @ NYG | – | +2.3 | – | – | 55.2 | – | 57% | – | |
| NE @ DET | – | +2.4 | – | – | 45.2 | – | 57% | – | |
| MIN @ GB | – | −4.9 | – | – | 43.4 | – | 36% | – | |
| MIA @ IND | – | −1.3 | – | – | 42.5 | – | 46% | – | |
| HOU @ CLE | – | −2.4 | – | – | 51.8 | – | 43% | – | |
| KC @ ATL | – | +0.2 | – | – | 39.0 | – | 50% | – | |
| CAR @ NO | – | +5.0 | – | – | 52.2 | – | 64% | – | |
| JAX @ TEN | – | −8.4 | – | – | 47.3 | – | 27% | – | |
| BUF @ NYJ | – | +2.3 | – | – | 50.4 | – | 57% | – | |
| LA @ ARI | – | +10.6 | – | – | 45.3 | – | 78% | – | |
| SEA @ LV | – | +2.7 | – | – | 41.9 | – | 58% | – | |
| SF @ DAL | – | −4.9 | – | – | 53.7 | – | 36% | – | |
| PIT @ CIN | – | +1.2 | – | – | 37.5 | – | 54% | – | |
| LAC @ BAL | – | +10.8 | – | – | 45.6 | – | 79% | – |