Week 10 · Sunday, Nov 15 · 8:20 pm ET · Paycor Stadium
TBD referee · 14 rest days (PIT) / 7 (CIN)
Model
Projected PIT 19.6 – CIN 20.8
margin +1.2 · total 40.5
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| PIT | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| +1.3 12th | Power rating | 14th +1.0 |
| −3.2 30th | Offense rating | 18th −0.0 |
| +4.6 2nd | Defense rating | 12th +1.1 |
| −0.252 30th | Offense EPA/play | 18th +0.001 |
| −0.358 2nd | Defense EPA/play allowed | 12th −0.081 |
| 33.9% 32nd | Offense success rate | 10th 47.6% |
| 36.7% 5th | Defense success rate allowed | 28th 51.8% |
| −0.251 27th | Pass EPA/dropback | 21st −0.030 |
| −0.638 1st | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 8th −0.168 |
| −0.252 27th | Rush EPA/carry | 8th +0.050 |
| −0.113 13th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 29th +0.118 |
| 6.2% 22nd | Explosive play rate | 7th 11.1% |
| 10.0% 20th | Explosive rate allowed | 7th 5.4% |
| 25.0% 23rd | 3rd-down conversion | 5th 57.1% |
| 16.7% 2nd | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 24th 50.0% |
| 50.0% 20th | Red-zone TD rate | 24th 40.0% |
| – – | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 9th 50.0% |
| 14.0% 13th | Pressure rate allowed | 21st 16.2% |
| 19.2% 10th | Pressure rate | 11th 16.7% |
| 7.1% 10th | Turnover rate | 15th 10.0% |
| 15.4% 13th | Takeaway rate | 1st 40.0% |
| 20.0 22nd | Points per game | 7th 33.0 |
| 13.0 6th | Points allowed per game | 18th 27.0 |
| +11.2% – | Pass rate over expected | – +5.7% |
| 25.7 6th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 3rd 23.1 |
| −0.252 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.001 |
| −0.358 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.081 |
| +0.8 19th | Special teams EPA | 3rd +5.6 |
PIT offense vs CIN defense
Offense percentiles for PIT against the matching defensive percentiles for CIN. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
PITCIN D
CIN offense vs PIT defense
Offense percentiles for CIN against the matching defensive percentiles for PIT. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
CINPIT D