Week 10 · Monday, Nov 16 · 8:15 pm ET · M&T Bank Stadium
TBD referee · 8 rest days (LAC) / 11 (BAL)
Model
Projected LAC 18.9 – BAL 29.7
margin +10.8 · total 48.6
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| LAC | BAL | |
|---|---|---|
| −3.9 28th | Power rating | 3rd +5.5 |
| −2.2 24th | Offense rating | 6th +2.6 |
| −1.7 25th | Defense rating | 6th +2.9 |
| −0.167 24th | Offense EPA/play | 6th +0.209 |
| +0.139 25th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 6th −0.225 |
| 40.0% 24th | Offense success rate | 12th 46.9% |
| 48.6% 27th | Defense success rate allowed | 13th 42.6% |
| −0.087 23rd | Pass EPA/dropback | 7th +0.316 |
| +0.270 25th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 3rd −0.410 |
| −0.360 29th | Rush EPA/carry | 6th +0.102 |
| −0.044 22nd | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 28th +0.116 |
| 5.5% 25th | Explosive play rate | 8th 10.9% |
| 5.6% 9th | Explosive rate allowed | 29th 13.0% |
| 25.0% 23rd | 3rd-down conversion | 17th 37.5% |
| 46.2% 22nd | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 11th 30.0% |
| 66.7% 15th | Red-zone TD rate | 13th 75.0% |
| 40.0% 7th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 23rd 100.0% |
| 11.4% 9th | Pressure rate allowed | 8th 10.3% |
| 12.8% 21st | Pressure rate | 4th 26.5% |
| 20.0% 27th | Turnover rate | 12th 7.7% |
| 0.0% 25th | Takeaway rate | 10th 16.7% |
| 14.0 24th | Points per game | 2nd 41.0 |
| 26.0 17th | Points allowed per game | 14th 23.0 |
| +0.3% – | Pass rate over expected | – −5.8% |
| 29.9 16th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 19th 30.8 |
| −0.167 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.209 |
| +0.139 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.225 |
| −4.3 31st | Special teams EPA | 6th +4.8 |
LAC offense vs BAL defense
Offense percentiles for LAC against the matching defensive percentiles for BAL. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
LACBAL D
BAL offense vs LAC defense
Offense percentiles for BAL against the matching defensive percentiles for LAC. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
BALLAC D