Week 10 · Sunday, Nov 15 · 9:30 am ET · FC Bayern Munich Stadium (dome)
TBD referee · 7 rest days (NE) / 7 (DET)
Model
Projected NE 22.9 – DET 25.4
margin +2.4 · total 48.3
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| NE | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| −1.5 22nd | Power rating | 18th −0.6 |
| −1.2 22nd | Offense rating | 19th −0.4 |
| −0.3 18th | Defense rating | 16th −0.2 |
| −0.092 22nd | Offense EPA/play | 19th −0.027 |
| +0.029 18th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 16th +0.019 |
| 40.9% 23rd | Offense success rate | 13th 45.5% |
| 38.8% 8th | Defense success rate allowed | 18th 43.8% |
| +0.127 15th | Pass EPA/dropback | 19th +0.012 |
| +0.196 21st | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 16th +0.052 |
| −0.451 32nd | Rush EPA/carry | 14th −0.072 |
| −0.195 8th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 18th −0.075 |
| 1.4% 31st | Explosive play rate | 11th 10.4% |
| 10.2% 21st | Explosive rate allowed | 17th 9.0% |
| 31.3% 21st | 3rd-down conversion | 16th 38.5% |
| 18.2% 4th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 23rd 47.1% |
| 50.0% 20th | Red-zone TD rate | 10th 80.0% |
| 0.0% 1st | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 20th 80.0% |
| 14.3% 14th | Pressure rate allowed | 24th 19.5% |
| 22.2% 6th | Pressure rate | 18th 14.3% |
| 33.3% 31st | Turnover rate | 9th 6.7% |
| 0.0% 25th | Takeaway rate | 4th 21.4% |
| 10.0 28th | Points per game | 8th 31.0 |
| 13.0 6th | Points allowed per game | 22nd 30.0 |
| −3.5% – | Pass rate over expected | – −2.4% |
| 31.9 24th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 20th 31.1 |
| −0.092 – | Off epa last3 | – −0.027 |
| +0.029 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.019 |
| +1.0 18th | Special teams EPA | 23rd +0.1 |
NE offense vs DET defense
Offense percentiles for NE against the matching defensive percentiles for DET. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
NEDET D
DET offense vs NE defense
Offense percentiles for DET against the matching defensive percentiles for NE. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
DETNE D