Week 10 · Sunday, Nov 15 · 1:00 pm ET · MetLife Stadium
TBD referee · 6 rest days (BUF) / 7 (NYJ)
Model
Projected BUF 25.6 – NYJ 27.8
margin +2.3 · total 53.4
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| BUF | NYJ | |
|---|---|---|
| +2.6 10th | Power rating | 6th +3.4 |
| +3.4 4th | Offense rating | 10th +1.5 |
| −0.8 20th | Defense rating | 10th +1.8 |
| +0.278 4th | Offense EPA/play | 10th +0.127 |
| +0.071 20th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 10th −0.141 |
| 41.1% 21st | Offense success rate | 7th 48.4% |
| 48.1% 24th | Defense success rate allowed | 19th 44.0% |
| +0.556 3rd | Pass EPA/dropback | 6th +0.338 |
| +0.098 17th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 9th −0.152 |
| −0.263 28th | Rush EPA/carry | 10th −0.038 |
| +0.030 24th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 16th −0.096 |
| 14.3% 2nd | Explosive play rate | 8th 10.9% |
| 8.9% 16th | Explosive rate allowed | 5th 4.0% |
| 33.3% 18th | 3rd-down conversion | 28th 18.2% |
| 43.8% 20th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 13th 33.3% |
| 33.3% 26th | Red-zone TD rate | 15th 66.7% |
| 80.0% 20th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 23rd 100.0% |
| 9.1% 7th | Pressure rate allowed | 1st 3.9% |
| 21.4% 7th | Pressure rate | 14th 15.4% |
| 0.0% 1st | Turnover rate | 1st 0.0% |
| 18.2% 7th | Takeaway rate | 25th 0.0% |
| 36.0 5th | Points per game | 18th 23.0 |
| 31.0 23rd | Points allowed per game | 2nd 10.0 |
| +3.7% – | Pass rate over expected | – −8.9% |
| 28.0 9th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 28th 34.3 |
| +0.278 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.127 |
| +0.071 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.141 |
| +4.4 7th | Special teams EPA | 11th +3.5 |
BUF offense vs NYJ defense
Offense percentiles for BUF against the matching defensive percentiles for NYJ. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
BUFNYJ D
NYJ offense vs BUF defense
Offense percentiles for NYJ against the matching defensive percentiles for BUF. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
NYJBUF D