Week 10 · Sunday, Nov 15 · 1:00 pm ET · Caesars Superdome (dome)
TBD referee · 7 rest days (CAR) / 7 (NO)
Model
Projected CAR 25.1 – NO 30.1
margin +5.0 · total 55.2
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| CAR | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| −2.9 25th | Power rating | 15th +0.6 |
| +1.6 9th | Offense rating | 17th +0.2 |
| −4.5 31st | Defense rating | 14th +0.4 |
| +0.130 9th | Offense EPA/play | 17th +0.019 |
| +0.361 31st | Defense EPA/play allowed | 14th −0.027 |
| 47.1% 11th | Offense success rate | 15th 43.8% |
| 53.3% 29th | Defense success rate allowed | 20th 45.5% |
| +0.242 9th | Pass EPA/dropback | 17th +0.052 |
| +0.551 29th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 14th +0.012 |
| −0.106 19th | Rush EPA/carry | 15th −0.075 |
| +0.143 31st | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 19th −0.072 |
| 11.8% 6th | Explosive play rate | 16th 9.0% |
| 12.0% 28th | Explosive rate allowed | 22nd 10.4% |
| 44.4% 12th | 3rd-down conversion | 10th 47.1% |
| 71.4% 30th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 17th 38.5% |
| 100.0% 1st | Red-zone TD rate | 10th 80.0% |
| 100.0% 23rd | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 20th 80.0% |
| 11.6% 10th | Pressure rate allowed | 14th 14.3% |
| 7.9% 28th | Pressure rate | 9th 19.5% |
| 15.4% 19th | Turnover rate | 29th 21.4% |
| 7.1% 22nd | Takeaway rate | 24th 6.7% |
| 37.0 4th | Points per game | 11th 30.0 |
| 59.0 32nd | Points allowed per game | 23rd 31.0 |
| +3.1% – | Pass rate over expected | – +4.1% |
| 24.7 4th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 2nd 21.6 |
| +0.130 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.019 |
| +0.361 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.027 |
| −0.5 24th | Special teams EPA | 29th −2.4 |
CAR offense vs NO defense
Offense percentiles for CAR against the matching defensive percentiles for NO. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
CARNO D
NO offense vs CAR defense
Offense percentiles for NO against the matching defensive percentiles for CAR. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
NOCAR D