Week 18 matchups
Model projections from opponent-adjusted EPA ratings plus 1.5 points of home field, compared with the market. Edges are z-score differences between an offense and the defense it faces.
Week 18 · Sun Jan 10 · TBDno line
49ers1-0 · Pwr +5.2
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Cardinals1-0 · Pwr +3.9
ARI 50% modelproj 23–23
Red zone -1.9Pass protection vs pressure +1.9
Week 18 · Sun Jan 10 · TBDno line
Cowboys0-1 · Pwr −1.2
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Commanders0-1 · Pwr +0.4
WAS 59% modelproj 26–29
Third down +2.3Red zone +2.2
Week 18 · Sun Jan 10 · TBDno line
Jets1-0 · Pwr +3.4
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Bills1-0 · Pwr +2.6
BUF 52% modelproj 25–26
Deep passing +3.1Ball security vs takeaways +2.4
Week 18 · Sun Jan 10 · TBDno line
Falcons0-1 · Pwr −1.3
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Panthers0-1 · Pwr −2.9
ATL 50% modelproj 22–22
Deep passing -2.4Rushing attack +1.4
Week 18 · Sun Jan 10 · TBDno line
Browns0-1 · Pwr −6.5
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Bengals1-0 · Pwr +1.0
CIN 75% modelproj 19–28
Ball security vs takeaways -3.7Explosive plays +2.8
Week 18 · Sun Jan 10 · TBDno line
Chargers0-1 · Pwr −3.9
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Broncos0-0 · Pwr +0.0
DEN 65% modelproj 20–26
Rushing attack -1.6Ball security vs takeaways +1.2
Week 18 · Sun Jan 10 · TBDno line
Lions1-0 · Pwr −0.6
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Packers0-1 · Pwr −3.2
DET 53% modelproj 23–22
Pass protection vs pressure -2.1Rushing attack -1.9
Week 18 · Sun Jan 10 · TBDno line
Titans0-1 · Pwr −3.4
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Texans0-1 · Pwr −2.6
HOU 57% modelproj 24–26
Deep passing -2.6Ball security vs takeaways +2.4
Week 18 · Sun Jan 10 · TBDno line
Jaguars1-0 · Pwr +6.5
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Colts0-1 · Pwr −5.5
JAX 78% modelproj 29–18
Pass protection vs pressure -3.4Early downs +3.1
Week 18 · Sun Jan 10 · TBDno line
Raiders1-0 · Pwr +2.7
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Chiefs0-0 · Pwr +0.0
LV 54% modelproj 22–21
Rushing attack -1.8Success rate -1.5
Week 18 · Sun Jan 10 · TBDno line
Seahawks1-0 · Pwr +1.5
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Rams0-1 · Pwr −5.2
SEA 65% modelproj 25–20
Ball security vs takeaways -2.9Points per drive -2.7
Week 18 · Sun Jan 10 · TBDno line
Bears1-0 · Pwr +2.9
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Vikings1-0 · Pwr +3.2
MIN 55% modelproj 25–26
Red zone +2.2Early downs +2.2
Week 18 · Sun Jan 10 · TBDno line
Dolphins0-1 · Pwr −2.7
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Patriots0-1 · Pwr −1.5
NE 58% modelproj 20–22
Deep passing +3.2Red zone -3.2
Week 18 · Sun Jan 10 · TBDno line
Buccaneers0-1 · Pwr −1.0
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Saints0-1 · Pwr +0.6
NO 59% modelproj 21–24
Ball security vs takeaways -2.2Rushing attack +1.5
Week 18 · Sun Jan 10 · TBDno line
Eagles1-0 · Pwr −0.4
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Giants1-0 · Pwr +1.2
NYG 59% modelproj 26–29
Third down +2.3Red zone +2.2
Week 18 · Sun Jan 10 · TBDno line
Steelers1-0 · Pwr +1.3
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Ravens1-0 · Pwr +5.5
BAL 66% modelproj 16–22
Deep passing +3.8Passing attack -2.7
Model vs market
The model is deliberately simple: adjusted EPA ratings scaled to points. Treat edges as a conversation starter, not a betting system.
| Game | Score | Home spread | Model margin | Spread edge | O/U | Model total | Total edge | Home WP (model) | Home WP (market) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF @ ARI | – | +0.1 | – | – | 45.3 | – | 50% | – | |
| DAL @ WAS | – | +3.1 | – | – | 55.2 | – | 59% | – | |
| NYJ @ BUF | – | +0.7 | – | – | 50.4 | – | 52% | – | |
| ATL @ CAR | – | −0.1 | – | – | 44.6 | – | 50% | – | |
| CLE @ CIN | – | +9.0 | – | – | 46.4 | – | 75% | – | |
| LAC @ DEN | – | +5.4 | – | – | 46.3 | – | 65% | – | |
| DET @ GB | – | −1.1 | – | – | 44.6 | – | 47% | – | |
| TEN @ HOU | – | +2.3 | – | – | 50.4 | – | 57% | – | |
| JAX @ IND | – | −10.5 | – | – | 47.2 | – | 22% | – | |
| LV @ KC | – | −1.2 | – | – | 43.2 | – | 46% | – | |
| SEA @ LA | – | −5.3 | – | – | 44.9 | – | 35% | – | |
| CHI @ MIN | – | +1.8 | – | – | 50.9 | – | 55% | – | |
| MIA @ NE | – | +2.7 | – | – | 41.9 | – | 58% | – | |
| TB @ NO | – | +3.1 | – | – | 45.0 | – | 59% | – | |
| PHI @ NYG | – | +3.1 | – | – | 55.2 | – | 59% | – | |
| PIT @ BAL | – | +5.6 | – | – | 38.3 | – | 66% | – |