Week 18 · Sunday, Jan 10 · 1:00 pm ET · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
TBD referee · 7 rest days (LV) / 7 (KC)
Model
Projected LV 18.7 – KC 23.8
margin +5.1 · total 42.5
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| LV | KC | |
|---|---|---|
| +2.7 9th | Power rating | 2nd +6.2 |
| −0.4 20th | Offense rating | 11th +1.4 |
| +3.1 4th | Defense rating | 1st +4.8 |
| −0.029 20th | Offense EPA/play | 11th +0.118 |
| −0.242 4th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 1st −0.378 |
| 43.1% 18th | Offense success rate | 22nd 40.9% |
| 34.6% 3rd | Defense success rate allowed | 4th 36.0% |
| +0.027 18th | Pass EPA/dropback | 20th −0.014 |
| −0.183 7th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 2nd −0.442 |
| −0.083 16th | Rush EPA/carry | 1st +0.259 |
| −0.399 3rd | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 7th −0.228 |
| 7.7% 19th | Explosive play rate | 15th 9.1% |
| 10.9% 23rd | Explosive rate allowed | 3rd 2.0% |
| 41.7% 15th | 3rd-down conversion | 7th 56.3% |
| 20.0% 6th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 2nd 16.7% |
| 75.0% 13th | Red-zone TD rate | 19th 60.0% |
| 33.3% 4th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 9th 50.0% |
| 6.5% 4th | Pressure rate allowed | 16th 15.2% |
| 24.3% 5th | Pressure rate | 8th 21.2% |
| 18.2% 24th | Turnover rate | 14th 8.3% |
| 18.2% 7th | Takeaway rate | 10th 16.7% |
| 27.0 13th | Points per game | 8th 31.0 |
| 13.0 6th | Points allowed per game | 2nd 10.0 |
| −5.6% – | Pass rate over expected | – +0.4% |
| 36.5 31st | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 8th 27.6 |
| −0.029 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.118 |
| −0.242 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.378 |
| +5.0 5th | Special teams EPA | 13th +3.3 |
LV offense vs KC defense
Offense percentiles for LV against the matching defensive percentiles for KC. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
LVKC D
KC offense vs LV defense
Offense percentiles for KC against the matching defensive percentiles for LV. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
KCLV D