Week 18 · Sunday, Jan 10 · 1:00 pm ET · Lucas Oil Stadium
TBD referee · 7 rest days (JAX) / 7 (IND)
Model
Projected JAX 30.4 – IND 19.9
margin −10.5 · total 50.3
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| JAX | IND | |
|---|---|---|
| +6.5 1st | Power rating | 30th −5.5 |
| +3.8 3rd | Offense rating | 27th −2.9 |
| +2.7 7th | Defense rating | 27th −2.6 |
| +0.310 3rd | Offense EPA/play | 27th −0.225 |
| −0.206 7th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 27th +0.209 |
| 59.3% 1st | Offense success rate | 20th 42.6% |
| 43.1% 16th | Defense success rate allowed | 21st 46.9% |
| +0.731 1st | Pass EPA/dropback | 30th −0.410 |
| −0.257 5th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 26th +0.316 |
| −0.053 13th | Rush EPA/carry | 5th +0.116 |
| −0.119 12th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 27th +0.102 |
| 16.7% 1st | Explosive play rate | 4th 13.0% |
| 7.8% 15th | Explosive rate allowed | 24th 10.9% |
| 55.6% 8th | 3rd-down conversion | 22nd 30.0% |
| 12.5% 1st | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 16th 37.5% |
| 100.0% 1st | Red-zone TD rate | 1st 100.0% |
| 0.0% 1st | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 18th 75.0% |
| 12.5% 11th | Pressure rate allowed | 29th 26.5% |
| 30.0% 2nd | Pressure rate | 25th 10.3% |
| 0.0% 1st | Turnover rate | 21st 16.7% |
| 22.2% 3rd | Takeaway rate | 20th 7.7% |
| 34.0 6th | Points per game | 18th 23.0 |
| 10.0 2nd | Points allowed per game | 31st 41.0 |
| −4.3% – | Pass rate over expected | – −4.1% |
| 29.4 14th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 30th 35.7 |
| +0.310 – | Off epa last3 | – −0.225 |
| −0.206 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.209 |
| +3.0 15th | Special teams EPA | 8th +4.4 |
JAX offense vs IND defense
Offense percentiles for JAX against the matching defensive percentiles for IND. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
JAXIND D
IND offense vs JAX defense
Offense percentiles for IND against the matching defensive percentiles for JAX. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
INDJAX D