Week 18 · Sunday, Jan 10 · 1:00 pm ET · Caesars Superdome (dome)
TBD referee · 7 rest days (TB) / 7 (NO)
Model
Projected TB 22.5 – NO 25.6
margin +3.1 · total 48.1
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| TB | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| −1.0 19th | Power rating | 15th +0.6 |
| −1.1 21st | Offense rating | 17th +0.2 |
| +0.0 15th | Defense rating | 14th +0.4 |
| −0.081 21st | Offense EPA/play | 17th +0.019 |
| +0.001 15th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 14th −0.027 |
| 51.8% 5th | Offense success rate | 15th 43.8% |
| 47.6% 23rd | Defense success rate allowed | 20th 45.5% |
| −0.168 25th | Pass EPA/dropback | 17th +0.052 |
| −0.030 12th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 14th +0.012 |
| +0.118 4th | Rush EPA/carry | 15th −0.075 |
| +0.050 25th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 19th −0.072 |
| 5.4% 26th | Explosive play rate | 16th 9.0% |
| 11.1% 26th | Explosive rate allowed | 22nd 10.4% |
| 50.0% 9th | 3rd-down conversion | 10th 47.1% |
| 57.1% 27th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 17th 38.5% |
| 50.0% 20th | Red-zone TD rate | 10th 80.0% |
| 40.0% 7th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 20th 80.0% |
| 16.7% 22nd | Pressure rate allowed | 14th 14.3% |
| 16.2% 12th | Pressure rate | 9th 19.5% |
| 40.0% 32nd | Turnover rate | 29th 21.4% |
| 10.0% 18th | Takeaway rate | 24th 6.7% |
| 27.0 13th | Points per game | 11th 30.0 |
| 33.0 26th | Points allowed per game | 23rd 31.0 |
| +2.7% – | Pass rate over expected | – +4.1% |
| 29.8 15th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 2nd 21.6 |
| −0.081 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.019 |
| +0.001 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.027 |
| +5.2 4th | Special teams EPA | 29th −2.4 |
TB offense vs NO defense
Offense percentiles for TB against the matching defensive percentiles for NO. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
TBNO D
NO offense vs TB defense
Offense percentiles for NO against the matching defensive percentiles for TB. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
NOTB D