Week 18 · Sunday, Jan 10 · 1:00 pm ET · Gillette Stadium
TBD referee · 7 rest days (MIA) / 7 (NE)
Model
Projected MIA 21.1 – NE 23.8
margin +2.7 · total 45.0
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| MIA | NE | |
|---|---|---|
| −2.7 24th | Power rating | 22nd −1.5 |
| −3.1 29th | Offense rating | 22nd −1.2 |
| +0.4 13th | Defense rating | 18th −0.3 |
| −0.242 29th | Offense EPA/play | 22nd −0.092 |
| −0.029 13th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 18th +0.029 |
| 34.6% 30th | Offense success rate | 23rd 40.9% |
| 43.1% 15th | Defense success rate allowed | 8th 38.8% |
| −0.183 26th | Pass EPA/dropback | 15th +0.127 |
| +0.027 15th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 21st +0.196 |
| −0.399 30th | Rush EPA/carry | 32nd −0.451 |
| −0.083 17th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 8th −0.195 |
| 10.9% 10th | Explosive play rate | 31st 1.4% |
| 7.7% 13th | Explosive rate allowed | 21st 10.2% |
| 20.0% 27th | 3rd-down conversion | 21st 31.3% |
| 41.7% 18th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 4th 18.2% |
| 33.3% 26th | Red-zone TD rate | 20th 50.0% |
| 75.0% 18th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 1st 0.0% |
| 24.3% 28th | Pressure rate allowed | 14th 14.3% |
| 6.5% 29th | Pressure rate | 6th 22.2% |
| 18.2% 24th | Turnover rate | 31st 33.3% |
| 18.2% 7th | Takeaway rate | 25th 0.0% |
| 13.0 25th | Points per game | 28th 10.0 |
| 27.0 18th | Points allowed per game | 6th 13.0 |
| −2.7% – | Pass rate over expected | – −3.5% |
| 34.4 29th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 24th 31.9 |
| −0.242 – | Off epa last3 | – −0.092 |
| −0.029 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.029 |
| −1.2 27th | Special teams EPA | 18th +1.0 |
MIA offense vs NE defense
Offense percentiles for MIA against the matching defensive percentiles for NE. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
MIANE D
NE offense vs MIA defense
Offense percentiles for NE against the matching defensive percentiles for MIA. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
NEMIA D