Week 18 · Sunday, Jan 10 · 1:00 pm ET · M&T Bank Stadium
TBD referee · 7 rest days (PIT) / 10 (BAL)
Model
Projected PIT 17.8 – BAL 23.5
margin +5.6 · total 41.3
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| PIT | BAL | |
|---|---|---|
| +1.3 12th | Power rating | 3rd +5.5 |
| −3.2 30th | Offense rating | 6th +2.6 |
| +4.6 2nd | Defense rating | 6th +2.9 |
| −0.252 30th | Offense EPA/play | 6th +0.209 |
| −0.358 2nd | Defense EPA/play allowed | 6th −0.225 |
| 33.9% 32nd | Offense success rate | 12th 46.9% |
| 36.7% 5th | Defense success rate allowed | 13th 42.6% |
| −0.251 27th | Pass EPA/dropback | 7th +0.316 |
| −0.638 1st | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 3rd −0.410 |
| −0.252 27th | Rush EPA/carry | 6th +0.102 |
| −0.113 13th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 28th +0.116 |
| 6.2% 22nd | Explosive play rate | 8th 10.9% |
| 10.0% 20th | Explosive rate allowed | 29th 13.0% |
| 25.0% 23rd | 3rd-down conversion | 17th 37.5% |
| 16.7% 2nd | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 11th 30.0% |
| 50.0% 20th | Red-zone TD rate | 13th 75.0% |
| – – | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 23rd 100.0% |
| 14.0% 13th | Pressure rate allowed | 8th 10.3% |
| 19.2% 10th | Pressure rate | 4th 26.5% |
| 7.1% 10th | Turnover rate | 12th 7.7% |
| 15.4% 13th | Takeaway rate | 10th 16.7% |
| 20.0 22nd | Points per game | 2nd 41.0 |
| 13.0 6th | Points allowed per game | 14th 23.0 |
| +11.2% – | Pass rate over expected | – −5.8% |
| 25.7 6th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 19th 30.8 |
| −0.252 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.209 |
| −0.358 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.225 |
| +0.8 19th | Special teams EPA | 6th +4.8 |
PIT offense vs BAL defense
Offense percentiles for PIT against the matching defensive percentiles for BAL. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
PITBAL D
BAL offense vs PIT defense
Offense percentiles for BAL against the matching defensive percentiles for PIT. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
BALPIT D