Week 5 matchups
Model projections from opponent-adjusted EPA ratings plus 1.5 points of home field, compared with the market. Edges are z-score differences between an offense and the defense it faces.
Week 5 · Thu 8:15 pm ETno line
Buccaneers0-1 · Pwr −1.0
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Cowboys0-1 · Pwr −1.2
DAL 54% modelproj 26–27
Third down +3.3Success rate +3.2Prime Video
Week 5 · Sun 9:30 am ETno line
Eagles1-0 · Pwr −0.4
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Jaguars1-0 · Pwr +6.5
JAX 73% modelproj 20–28
Ball security vs takeaways +2.4Red zone +2.2NFL Net
Week 5 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Vikings1-0 · Pwr +3.2
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Saints0-1 · Pwr +0.6
MIN 53% modelproj 23–22
Pass protection vs pressure -2.1Rushing attack -1.9FOX
Week 5 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Browns0-1 · Pwr −6.5
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Jets1-0 · Pwr +3.4
NYJ 80% modelproj 18–29
Passing attack +2.8Explosive plays +2.8CBS
Week 5 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Colts0-1 · Pwr −5.5
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Steelers1-0 · Pwr +1.3
PIT 73% modelproj 15–23
Passing attack -3.9Overall efficiency -3.1CBS
Week 5 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Raiders1-0 · Pwr +2.7
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Patriots0-1 · Pwr −1.5
LV 58% modelproj 22–20
Rushing attack -3.9Ball security vs takeaways -2.7CBS
Week 5 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Bengals1-0 · Pwr +1.0
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Dolphins0-1 · Pwr −2.7
CIN 57% modelproj 22–20
Deep passing +3.8Ball security vs takeaways -3.3FOX
Week 5 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Texans0-1 · Pwr −2.6
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Titans0-1 · Pwr −3.4
TEN 52% modelproj 25–26
Deep passing -2.6Ball security vs takeaways +2.4CBS
Week 5 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Giants1-0 · Pwr +1.2
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Commanders0-1 · Pwr +0.4
WAS 52% modelproj 27–28
Explosive plays -3.3Third down +2.9FOX
Week 5 · Sun 4:05 pm ETno line
Broncos0-0 · Pwr +0.0
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Chargers0-1 · Pwr −3.9
DEN 57% modelproj 24–22
Rushing attack -1.6Ball security vs takeaways +1.2CBS
Week 5 · Sun 4:25 pm ETno line
Lions1-0 · Pwr −0.6
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Cardinals1-0 · Pwr +3.9
ARI 67% modelproj 20–26
Deep passing -1.9Rushing attack -1.4FOX
Week 5 · Sun 4:25 pm ETno line
Bears1-0 · Pwr +2.9
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Packers0-1 · Pwr −3.2
CHI 63% modelproj 28–23
Points per drive +3.0Third down +2.6FOX
Week 5 · Sun 4:25 pm ETno line
49ers1-0 · Pwr +5.2
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Seahawks1-0 · Pwr +1.5
SF 57% modelproj 24–21
Red zone -3.2Points per drive -2.5FOX
Week 5 · Sun 8:20 pm ETno line
Ravens1-0 · Pwr +5.5
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Falcons0-1 · Pwr −1.3
BAL 65% modelproj 22–16
Passing attack -3.9Overall efficiency -3.1NBC
Week 5 · Mon 8:15 pm ETno line
Bills1-0 · Pwr +2.6
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Rams0-1 · Pwr −5.2
BUF 68% modelproj 28–22
Deep passing +3.8Early downs +2.6ESPNABC
Model vs market
The model is deliberately simple: adjusted EPA ratings scaled to points. Treat edges as a conversation starter, not a betting system.
| Game | Score | Home spread | Model margin | Spread edge | O/U | Model total | Total edge | Home WP (model) | Home WP (market) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB @ DAL | – | +1.4 | – | – | 53.1 | – | 54% | – | |
| PHI @ JAX | – | +8.4 | – | – | 48.5 | – | 73% | – | |
| MIN @ NO | – | −1.1 | – | – | 44.6 | – | 47% | – | |
| CLE @ NYJ | – | +11.4 | – | – | 47.3 | – | 80% | – | |
| IND @ PIT | – | +8.3 | – | – | 38.3 | – | 73% | – | |
| LV @ NE | – | −2.7 | – | – | 41.9 | – | 42% | – | |
| CIN @ MIA | – | −2.2 | – | – | 41.7 | – | 43% | – | |
| HOU @ TEN | – | +0.7 | – | – | 50.4 | – | 52% | – | |
| NYG @ WAS | – | +0.7 | – | – | 55.2 | – | 52% | – | |
| DEN @ LAC | – | −2.4 | – | – | 46.3 | – | 43% | – | |
| DET @ ARI | – | +5.9 | – | – | 45.7 | – | 67% | – | |
| CHI @ GB | – | −4.6 | – | – | 50.9 | – | 37% | – | |
| SF @ SEA | – | −2.2 | – | – | 44.9 | – | 43% | – | |
| BAL @ ATL | – | −5.3 | – | – | 38.3 | – | 35% | – | |
| BUF @ LA | – | −6.3 | – | – | 50.1 | – | 32% | – |