Week 5 · Thursday, Oct 8 · 8:15 pm ET · AT&T Stadium
TBD referee · 4 rest days (TB) / 4 (DAL)
Model
Projected TB 27.4 – DAL 28.8
margin +1.4 · total 56.1
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| TB | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| −1.0 19th | Power rating | 20th −1.2 |
| −1.1 21st | Offense rating | 5th +3.3 |
| +0.0 15th | Defense rating | 32nd −4.5 |
| −0.081 21st | Offense EPA/play | 5th +0.271 |
| +0.001 15th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 32nd +0.363 |
| 51.8% 5th | Offense success rate | 8th 48.3% |
| 47.6% 23rd | Defense success rate allowed | 31st 59.1% |
| −0.168 25th | Pass EPA/dropback | 5th +0.425 |
| −0.030 12th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 31st +0.667 |
| +0.118 4th | Rush EPA/carry | 18th −0.100 |
| +0.050 25th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 26th +0.059 |
| 5.4% 26th | Explosive play rate | 32nd 0.0% |
| 11.1% 26th | Explosive rate allowed | 10th 6.1% |
| 50.0% 9th | 3rd-down conversion | 2nd 72.7% |
| 57.1% 27th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 32nd 90.0% |
| 50.0% 20th | Red-zone TD rate | 1st 100.0% |
| 40.0% 7th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 23rd 100.0% |
| 16.7% 22nd | Pressure rate allowed | 6th 8.3% |
| 16.2% 12th | Pressure rate | 15th 15.2% |
| 40.0% 32nd | Turnover rate | 17th 14.3% |
| 10.0% 18th | Takeaway rate | 15th 14.3% |
| 27.0 13th | Points per game | 22nd 20.0 |
| 33.0 26th | Points allowed per game | 21st 28.0 |
| +2.7% – | Pass rate over expected | – +2.3% |
| 29.8 15th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 5th 25.6 |
| −0.081 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.271 |
| +0.001 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.363 |
| +5.2 4th | Special teams EPA | 26th −1.1 |
TB offense vs DAL defense
Offense percentiles for TB against the matching defensive percentiles for DAL. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
TBDAL D
DAL offense vs TB defense
Offense percentiles for DAL against the matching defensive percentiles for TB. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
DALTB D