Week 5 · Sunday, Oct 11 · 1:00 pm ET · Acrisure Stadium
TBD referee · 7 rest days (IND) / 10 (PIT)
Model
Projected IND 16.5 – PIT 24.8
margin +8.3 · total 41.3
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| IND | PIT | |
|---|---|---|
| −5.5 30th | Power rating | 12th +1.3 |
| −2.9 27th | Offense rating | 30th −3.2 |
| −2.6 27th | Defense rating | 2nd +4.6 |
| −0.225 27th | Offense EPA/play | 30th −0.252 |
| +0.209 27th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 2nd −0.358 |
| 42.6% 20th | Offense success rate | 32nd 33.9% |
| 46.9% 21st | Defense success rate allowed | 5th 36.7% |
| −0.410 30th | Pass EPA/dropback | 27th −0.251 |
| +0.316 26th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 1st −0.638 |
| +0.116 5th | Rush EPA/carry | 27th −0.252 |
| +0.102 27th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 13th −0.113 |
| 13.0% 4th | Explosive play rate | 22nd 6.2% |
| 10.9% 24th | Explosive rate allowed | 20th 10.0% |
| 30.0% 22nd | 3rd-down conversion | 23rd 25.0% |
| 37.5% 16th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 2nd 16.7% |
| 100.0% 1st | Red-zone TD rate | 20th 50.0% |
| 75.0% 18th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | – – |
| 26.5% 29th | Pressure rate allowed | 13th 14.0% |
| 10.3% 25th | Pressure rate | 10th 19.2% |
| 16.7% 21st | Turnover rate | 10th 7.1% |
| 7.7% 20th | Takeaway rate | 13th 15.4% |
| 23.0 18th | Points per game | 22nd 20.0 |
| 41.0 31st | Points allowed per game | 6th 13.0 |
| −4.1% – | Pass rate over expected | – +11.2% |
| 35.7 30th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 6th 25.7 |
| −0.225 – | Off epa last3 | – −0.252 |
| +0.209 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.358 |
| +4.4 8th | Special teams EPA | 19th +0.8 |
IND offense vs PIT defense
Offense percentiles for IND against the matching defensive percentiles for PIT. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
INDPIT D
PIT offense vs IND defense
Offense percentiles for PIT against the matching defensive percentiles for IND. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
PITIND D