Week 5 · Sunday, Oct 11 · 1:00 pm ET · Nissan Stadium
TBD referee · 7 rest days (HOU) / 7 (TEN)
Model
Projected HOU 26.3 – TEN 27.1
margin +0.7 · total 53.4
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| HOU | TEN | |
|---|---|---|
| −2.6 23rd | Power rating | 27th −3.4 |
| +0.8 13th | Offense rating | 23rd −1.8 |
| −3.4 29th | Defense rating | 23rd −1.5 |
| +0.071 13th | Offense EPA/play | 23rd −0.141 |
| +0.278 29th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 23rd +0.127 |
| 48.1% 9th | Offense success rate | 14th 44.0% |
| 41.1% 12th | Defense success rate allowed | 26th 48.4% |
| +0.098 16th | Pass EPA/dropback | 24th −0.152 |
| +0.556 30th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 27th +0.338 |
| +0.030 9th | Rush EPA/carry | 17th −0.096 |
| −0.263 5th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 23rd −0.038 |
| 8.9% 17th | Explosive play rate | 28th 4.0% |
| 14.3% 31st | Explosive rate allowed | 24th 10.9% |
| 43.8% 13th | 3rd-down conversion | 18th 33.3% |
| 33.3% 13th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 4th 18.2% |
| 80.0% 10th | Red-zone TD rate | 1st 100.0% |
| 33.3% 4th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 14th 66.7% |
| 21.4% 26th | Pressure rate allowed | 19th 15.4% |
| 9.1% 26th | Pressure rate | 32nd 3.9% |
| 18.2% 24th | Turnover rate | 1st 0.0% |
| 0.0% 25th | Takeaway rate | 25th 0.0% |
| 31.0 8th | Points per game | 28th 10.0 |
| 36.0 28th | Points allowed per game | 14th 23.0 |
| −4.8% – | Pass rate over expected | – +5.8% |
| 31.1 21st | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 7th 27.3 |
| +0.071 – | Off epa last3 | – −0.141 |
| +0.278 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.127 |
| +4.3 9th | Special teams EPA | 32nd −5.1 |
HOU offense vs TEN defense
Offense percentiles for HOU against the matching defensive percentiles for TEN. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
HOUTEN D
TEN offense vs HOU defense
Offense percentiles for TEN against the matching defensive percentiles for HOU. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
TENHOU D