Week 5 · Sunday, Oct 11 · 1:00 pm ET · Caesars Superdome (dome)
TBD referee · 7 rest days (MIN) / 6 (NO)
Model
Projected MIN 24.4 – NO 23.3
margin −1.1 · total 47.7
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| MIN | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| +3.2 7th | Power rating | 15th +0.6 |
| +0.8 12th | Offense rating | 17th +0.2 |
| +2.4 8th | Defense rating | 14th +0.4 |
| +0.071 12th | Offense EPA/play | 17th +0.019 |
| −0.181 8th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 14th −0.027 |
| 38.7% 26th | Offense success rate | 15th 43.8% |
| 38.2% 6th | Defense success rate allowed | 20th 45.5% |
| +0.233 10th | Pass EPA/dropback | 17th +0.052 |
| −0.059 11th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 14th +0.012 |
| −0.125 22nd | Rush EPA/carry | 15th −0.075 |
| −0.438 2nd | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 19th −0.072 |
| 3.2% 29th | Explosive play rate | 16th 9.0% |
| 13.2% 30th | Explosive rate allowed | 22nd 10.4% |
| 57.1% 5th | 3rd-down conversion | 10th 47.1% |
| 25.0% 8th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 17th 38.5% |
| 100.0% 1st | Red-zone TD rate | 10th 80.0% |
| 25.0% 3rd | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 20th 80.0% |
| 16.1% 20th | Pressure rate allowed | 14th 14.3% |
| 32.6% 1st | Pressure rate | 9th 19.5% |
| 7.7% 12th | Turnover rate | 29th 21.4% |
| 16.7% 10th | Takeaway rate | 24th 6.7% |
| 39.0 3rd | Points per game | 11th 30.0 |
| 22.0 12th | Points allowed per game | 23rd 31.0 |
| −8.0% – | Pass rate over expected | – +4.1% |
| 32.7 26th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 2nd 21.6 |
| +0.071 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.019 |
| −0.181 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.027 |
| +3.0 14th | Special teams EPA | 29th −2.4 |
MIN offense vs NO defense
Offense percentiles for MIN against the matching defensive percentiles for NO. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
MINNO D
NO offense vs MIN defense
Offense percentiles for NO against the matching defensive percentiles for MIN. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
NOMIN D