Week 5 · Sunday, Oct 11 · 8:20 pm ET · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
TBD referee · 7 rest days (BAL) / 6 (ATL)
Model
Projected BAL 23.3 – ATL 18.0
margin −5.3 · total 41.3
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| BAL | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.5 3rd | Power rating | 21st −1.3 |
| +2.6 6th | Offense rating | 31st −4.6 |
| +2.9 6th | Defense rating | 3rd +3.2 |
| +0.209 6th | Offense EPA/play | 31st −0.358 |
| −0.225 6th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 3rd −0.252 |
| 46.9% 12th | Offense success rate | 28th 36.7% |
| 42.6% 13th | Defense success rate allowed | 1st 33.9% |
| +0.316 7th | Pass EPA/dropback | 32nd −0.638 |
| −0.410 3rd | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 6th −0.251 |
| +0.102 6th | Rush EPA/carry | 20th −0.113 |
| +0.116 28th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 6th −0.252 |
| 10.9% 8th | Explosive play rate | 13th 10.0% |
| 13.0% 29th | Explosive rate allowed | 11th 6.2% |
| 37.5% 17th | 3rd-down conversion | 30th 16.7% |
| 30.0% 11th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 8th 25.0% |
| 75.0% 13th | Red-zone TD rate | – – |
| 100.0% 23rd | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 9th 50.0% |
| 10.3% 8th | Pressure rate allowed | 23rd 19.2% |
| 26.5% 4th | Pressure rate | 20th 14.0% |
| 7.7% 12th | Turnover rate | 19th 15.4% |
| 16.7% 10th | Takeaway rate | 22nd 7.1% |
| 41.0 2nd | Points per game | 25th 13.0 |
| 23.0 14th | Points allowed per game | 10th 20.0 |
| −5.8% – | Pass rate over expected | – −17.1% |
| 30.8 19th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 18th 30.7 |
| +0.209 – | Off epa last3 | – −0.358 |
| −0.225 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.252 |
| +4.8 6th | Special teams EPA | 28th −2.3 |
BAL offense vs ATL defense
Offense percentiles for BAL against the matching defensive percentiles for ATL. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
BALATL D
ATL offense vs BAL defense
Offense percentiles for ATL against the matching defensive percentiles for BAL. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
ATLBAL D