Week 5 · Sunday, Oct 11 · 1:00 pm ET · Gillette Stadium
TBD referee · 7 rest days (LV) / 7 (NE)
Model
Projected LV 23.8 – NE 21.1
margin −2.7 · total 45.0
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| LV | NE | |
|---|---|---|
| +2.7 9th | Power rating | 22nd −1.5 |
| −0.4 20th | Offense rating | 22nd −1.2 |
| +3.1 4th | Defense rating | 18th −0.3 |
| −0.029 20th | Offense EPA/play | 22nd −0.092 |
| −0.242 4th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 18th +0.029 |
| 43.1% 18th | Offense success rate | 23rd 40.9% |
| 34.6% 3rd | Defense success rate allowed | 8th 38.8% |
| +0.027 18th | Pass EPA/dropback | 15th +0.127 |
| −0.183 7th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 21st +0.196 |
| −0.083 16th | Rush EPA/carry | 32nd −0.451 |
| −0.399 3rd | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 8th −0.195 |
| 7.7% 19th | Explosive play rate | 31st 1.4% |
| 10.9% 23rd | Explosive rate allowed | 21st 10.2% |
| 41.7% 15th | 3rd-down conversion | 21st 31.3% |
| 20.0% 6th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 4th 18.2% |
| 75.0% 13th | Red-zone TD rate | 20th 50.0% |
| 33.3% 4th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 1st 0.0% |
| 6.5% 4th | Pressure rate allowed | 14th 14.3% |
| 24.3% 5th | Pressure rate | 6th 22.2% |
| 18.2% 24th | Turnover rate | 31st 33.3% |
| 18.2% 7th | Takeaway rate | 25th 0.0% |
| 27.0 13th | Points per game | 28th 10.0 |
| 13.0 6th | Points allowed per game | 6th 13.0 |
| −5.6% – | Pass rate over expected | – −3.5% |
| 36.5 31st | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 24th 31.9 |
| −0.029 – | Off epa last3 | – −0.092 |
| −0.242 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.029 |
| +5.0 5th | Special teams EPA | 18th +1.0 |
LV offense vs NE defense
Offense percentiles for LV against the matching defensive percentiles for NE. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
LVNE D
NE offense vs LV defense
Offense percentiles for NE against the matching defensive percentiles for LV. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
NELV D