Week 5 · Monday, Oct 12 · 8:15 pm ET · SoFi Stadium (dome)
TBD referee · 8 rest days (BUF) / 8 (LA)
Model
Projected BUF 29.7 – LA 23.4
margin −6.3 · total 53.1
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| BUF | LA | |
|---|---|---|
| +2.6 10th | Power rating | 29th −5.2 |
| +3.4 4th | Offense rating | 28th −2.9 |
| −0.8 20th | Defense rating | 26th −2.3 |
| +0.278 4th | Offense EPA/play | 28th −0.226 |
| +0.071 20th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 26th +0.190 |
| 41.1% 21st | Offense success rate | 16th 43.3% |
| 48.1% 24th | Defense success rate allowed | 30th 56.9% |
| +0.556 3rd | Pass EPA/dropback | 29th −0.270 |
| +0.098 17th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 22nd +0.227 |
| −0.263 28th | Rush EPA/carry | 24th −0.171 |
| +0.030 24th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 30th +0.142 |
| 14.3% 2nd | Explosive play rate | 21st 6.7% |
| 8.9% 16th | Explosive rate allowed | 13th 7.7% |
| 33.3% 18th | 3rd-down conversion | 26th 22.2% |
| 43.8% 20th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 29th 58.3% |
| 33.3% 26th | Red-zone TD rate | 26th 33.3% |
| 80.0% 20th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 14th 66.7% |
| 9.1% 7th | Pressure rate allowed | 30th 27.6% |
| 21.4% 7th | Pressure rate | 30th 5.6% |
| 0.0% 1st | Turnover rate | 27th 20.0% |
| 18.2% 7th | Takeaway rate | 17th 11.1% |
| 36.0 5th | Points per game | 32nd 7.0 |
| 31.0 23rd | Points allowed per game | 18th 27.0 |
| +3.7% – | Pass rate over expected | – −14.8% |
| 28.0 9th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 23rd 31.8 |
| +0.278 – | Off epa last3 | – −0.226 |
| +0.071 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.190 |
| +4.4 7th | Special teams EPA | 22nd +0.1 |
BUF offense vs LA defense
Offense percentiles for BUF against the matching defensive percentiles for LA. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
BUFLA D
LA offense vs BUF defense
Offense percentiles for LA against the matching defensive percentiles for BUF. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
LABUF D